Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryJake
20HR ←16
70R ←53
70RBI ←57
3SB →7
.270AVG ←.258
Current Season
BenCategoryJake
17HR ←9
44R ←31
44RBI ←33
2SB →4
.306AVG ←.277
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Jake Bauers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.355, +0.040 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Jake Bauers: 16 HR / 53 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).