Rest of Season Projection
AlecCategoryBen
12HR →20
40R →70
58RBI →70
3SB3
.283AVG ←.270
Current Season
AlecCategoryBen
7HR →17
26R →44
38RBI →44
2SB2
.281AVG →.306
What Each Player's System Trusts
Alec Burleson
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.371, +0.056 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Alec Burleson: 12 HR / 40 R. Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).