Rest of Season Projection
AlecCategoryChristian
12HR ←8
40R →53
58RBI ←45
3SB →8
.283AVG ←.210
Current Season
AlecCategoryChristian
7HR ←4
26R ←21
38RBI ←18
2SB →3
.281AVG ←.275
What Each Player's System Trusts
Alec Burleson
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.371, +0.056 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.389 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.292 is 0.064 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Alec Burleson: 12 HR / 40 R. Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 53 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).