346 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Jake Bauers
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xwOBA 0.366, +0.051 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.323 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.70 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 7AVG .250R 29RBI 30SB 4
Bauers is a buy — elite contact, production earned.
Stable, above-average skill — but an elevated, unstable BABIP means some of the average will give back. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %14.0%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~13.9% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.366, +0.051 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.323 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo92.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+3.5 mphvs his norm —
207 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %53.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+13.1%vs his norm —
207 / 50 BBE
Barrel %14.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
207 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.366
lg avg .315 ▲+.051vs his norm —
346 / 160 PA
wOBA.380
lg avg .315 ▲+.065vs his norm —
346 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
346 / 60 PA
Walk %13.6%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
346 / 120 PA
BABIP.323
lg avg .295 ▲+.028vs his norm +.040 ▲BABIP is above his ~.283 norm — expect it to fall.
207 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.0%vs his norm —
346 / 50 PA
Chase %20.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−8.1%vs his norm —
346 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 14.0%→14.0%signal7 HR — Barrel% 14.0% (signal) tempered to career ~13.9% → projected 14.0%.
BABIP 0.323→0.297 regressednoise.250 AVG — BABIP 0.323 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.288 (xBA 0.258) → 0.297.
on-base + lineup29 R — his run rate over ~184 projected PA.
slugging + lineup30 RBI — his RBI rate over ~184 projected PA.
run rate / role4 SB — his steal rate (4 in 50 G) over ~184 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.