Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryPete
20HR ←19
70R ←52
70RBI ←55
3SB3
.270AVG ←.258
Current Season
BenCategoryPete
17HR ←11
44R ←34
44RBI ←36
2SB2
.306AVG ←.237
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Pete Alonso
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.366, +0.051 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Pete Alonso: 19 HR / 52 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).