MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 30, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brandan Bidois
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL

Brandan Bidois

MIA·P
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
new call as of September 30, 2026
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.341 elevated and unstable, the 6.32 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 5.80 is +1.70 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Bidois is a hold — the panic is noise, but so is the upside.

That 6.32 ERA is doing more damage than the pitching deserves, but it is not hiding a star. His BABIP-against is .341, 46 points above the league average of .295, and that number is nowhere near reliable — he has 47 balls in play of the 800 that stat needs. He is also getting swings. He strikes out 25% of batters, above the league average of 22%, and his swinging-strike rate of 18.4% is far above the league's 11%. His fastball sits 96.9 mph. The problem is what happens after contact: his expected ERA is 5.80, a run and a half above the league average of 4.10. The luck will regress; the skill it regresses to is still below league. With limited data, that is the most we can say. Hold. 0 SV and 0-0 W on the ROS line: a deep-league hold, not a roster-anywhere arm.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.341 elevated and unstable — the 6.32 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 5.80 is +1.70 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.8%
46.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % Allowed is above the ~40.0% league average — expect it to fall.
47 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed17.0%
17.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+9.0%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
47 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.363
.363*
lg avg .315 ▲+.048vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 200 TBF
xERA5.80
5.80*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.70vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 200 TBF
ERA6.32
6.32*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.22vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
15.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.0%
believable since Jun 1525.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
80 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.0%
15.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.0%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.341
.341*
lg avg .295 ▲+.046vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
47 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.4%
18.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —
80 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.9%
33.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
80 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.9 mph
96.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
325 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.0%→24.8%signal0 K — K% 25.0% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 24.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.80noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.80 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 10 IP.
BB% 15.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 15% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.61 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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