MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jeff Hoffman
week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Jeff Hoffman

TOR·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.07 sits 1.03 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.402 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 32WHIP 1.24ERA 3.67W 2–5SV 3–5

Hoffman is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise.

His ERA is 4.57, but the underlying skill is better than that number suggests. The main culprit is his BABIP-against: .402 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 101. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 3.07, a full run and a half below what the box score shows. His stuff backs it up. He strikes out 34.8% of batters — well above the 22% league average — and his walk rate is right at league average. His fastball velocity is 96.6 mph, above league average, and it has been stepping up across the sample. His hard-hit rate allowed is 30.7%, nearly ten points below league average, and that stat is already stable. The ERA is ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better. Buy low. Buy the dip: 32 K, a strong 3.67 ERA. A deep-league asset with skill that supports this healthy SIERA.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %34.8%—+10.1% ▲vs his ~24.7% career norm
  • Walk %8.2%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~10.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.07 sits 1.03 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.402 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.7%
30.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.3%vs his norm —
101 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.9%
believable since May 277.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
101 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.274
.274*
lg avg .315 ▼−.041vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
184 / 200 TBF
xERA3.07
3.07*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.03vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
184 / 200 TBF
ERA4.57
4.57*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.47vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
41.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %34.8%
norm34.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+12.8%vs his norm +10.1% ▲
184 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.2%
norm8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
184 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.402
.402*
lg avg .295 ▲+.107vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
101 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.9%
18.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.9%vs his norm —
184 / 60 TBF
Chase %38.9%
38.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.4%vs his norm —
184 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.6 mph
96.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.6 mphvs his norm —
761 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 34.8%→29.5%signal32 K — K% 34.8% (signal) tempered to career ~24.7% → projected 29.5% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 3.07noise3.67 ERA — xERA 3.07 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 8.2% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.308 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP, blended 5%…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)3-5 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep9 SV, 3.67 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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