week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
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Jeff Hoffman
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Hoffman is a buy-low — ERA inflated by BABIP noise.
Jeff Hoffman's ERA sits at 6.31, but that number is built on an unreliable foundation. His BABIP-against is .516 — far above the league average of .295 — and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize. He has just 65 batted balls against him, so that gap is luck, not skill. The underlying metrics tell a different story: his strikeout rate is 36.6%, well above league average, and his hard-hit rate allowed is 29.2%, well below the league's 40.0%. His barrel rate allowed is also below average. These are stable numbers past their stabilization thresholds. Strip out the noisy BABIP and his expected ERA is 3.16, a full three runs lower. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Buy low.
Buy Low
high0.90
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.516 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL65 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL65 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.283
lg avg .315 ▼−.032too early to trust
NOISE123 / 200 TBF
xERA3.16
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.94too early to trust
NOISE123 / 200 TBF
ERA6.31
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.21too early to trust
NOISE25.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %36.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+14.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL123 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%too early to trust
NOISE123 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.516
lg avg .295 ▲+.221too early to trust
NOISE65 / 800 BIP