MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jeff Hoffman
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY-LOW

Jeff Hoffman

MIN·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY-LOW on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.35, 0.75 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.82
ROSK 0ERA 3.35WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0–0

Hoffman is a buy — a 3.35 xERA with the strikeouts to back it.

His expected ERA sits at 3.35, three-quarters of a run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The skill underneath is the strikeout rate: 34.9% of hitters, against a league mark of 22.0%, on an 18.9% swinging-strike rate and a 37.6% chase rate. That is a pitcher missing bats on purpose rather than sitting behind a good line. His xERA has been stepping down across the sample, and the fastball has been stepping up at the same time, now 96.4 mph against a 94.0 league average. The walk rate is 10.3%, slightly above average — the one soft spot. But batted-ball contact is not the engine of this line; the whiffs are. There is no luck propping this up. Buy. A 0 K / 3.35 ERA / 1.25 WHIP line makes him a deep-league asset worth adding now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %34.9%—+10.2% ▲vs his ~24.7% career norm
  • Walk %10.3%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~10.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.35, 0.75 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.6%
36.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
153 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
believable since May 278.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
153 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.283
.283*
lg avg .315 ▼−.032vs his norm —
292 / 200 TBF
xERA3.35
3.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.75vs his norm —
292 / 200 TBF
ERA3.54
3.54*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.56vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
66 / 200 IP
Strikeout %34.9%
norm34.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+12.9%vs his norm +10.2% ▲
292 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.3%
norm10.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
292 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.358
.358*
lg avg .295 ▲+.063vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
153 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.9%
18.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.9%vs his norm —
292 / 60 TBF
Chase %37.6%
37.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.1%vs his norm —
292 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.4 mph
96.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.4 mphvs his norm —
1211 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 34.9%→30.7%signal0 K — K% 34.9% (signal) tempered to career ~24.7% → projected 30.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.35signal3.35 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.35 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.3% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.307 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep5 SV, 3.35 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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