Rest of Season Projection
JeffCategoryJesse
49K →52
3.67ERA ←3.91
1.24WHIP ←1.25
4–8W →5–13
5–9SV ←0
Current Season
JeffCategoryJesse
45K ←30
6.31ERA →3.82
1.75WHIP →1.27
4W →5
5SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jeff Hoffman
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.19 sits 0.91 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.478 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Jesse Scholtens
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.98 is 1.16 above the ERA — regression coming
Jeff Hoffman: 49 K / 3.67 ERA. Jesse Scholtens: 52 K / 3.91 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).