Grayson Rodriguez
Rodriguez is a sell — his expected ERA has no luck to blame.
His xERA sits at 5.69, a run and a half above the league average of 4.10, and with 444 batters faced he is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The contact he allows backs it up: a .360 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league average, plus a 44.7% hard-hit rate allowed at 309 batted balls. There is no BABIP story here to soften any of it — this is the level he is at, not a bad stretch. He strikes out just 19.1% of batters, below league, and walks 9.7%, above it, so the strikeout and walk profile points the same direction as the contact numbers. Worse, his xERA has been stepping up across the sample, not settling down. Whatever the velocity says, the outcomes are the outcomes. Sell. 0 K and a 5.13 ERA ROS: fringe streaming-only arm, so drop him and don't chase the name.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.1%—−6.2% ▼vs his ~25.3% career norm
- Walk %9.7%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~8.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.69 +1.59 vs league with no luck excuse
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
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