Grayson Rodriguez
Rodriguez is a hold — the ERA is noise, the skill is short.
His 6.28 ERA is worse than the pitching underneath it, but the pitching underneath it is not good. The inflated number comes from a .324 BABIP-against, 29 points above the .295 league average, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable — he has 252. That gap is luck, not a verdict on his stuff. Strip the luck out and his expected ERA is 5.64, a run and a half above league average, and that number is on solid ground at 370 batters faced. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample, which is the wrong direction. He gives up hard contact at 46% against a 40% league rate, and that is a skill problem, not a sequencing one. The panic is overdone; the buy is not there. Hold. 11 K and a 5.10 ERA ROS — fringe arm, waiver-wire streaming-only; hold if you must, but this is not an asset.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.3%—−5.0% ▼vs his ~25.3% career norm
- Walk %10.0%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~8.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.324 elevated and unstable — the 6.28 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 5.64 is +1.54 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.