week 31
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH
Spencer Miles
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.06, 1.04 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.91 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.06WHIP 1.22W 0–0SV 0
Miles is a buy — the run prevention is earned, not lucky.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Walk %6.4%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm
- Strikeout %24.0%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~22.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.06, 1.04 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
269 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
269 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.271
lg avg .315 ▼−.044vs his norm —
388 / 200 TBF
xERA3.06
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.04vs his norm —
388 / 200 TBF
ERA2.73
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.37vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
95.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
388 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
388 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.285
lg avg .295 ▼−.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
269 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
388 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
388 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
1503 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.0%→23.5%signal0 K — K% 24.0% (signal) tempered to career ~22.7% → projected 23.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.06signal3.06 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.06 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.4% + contactsignal1.22 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.22 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard3.06 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.