week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Spencer Miles
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.28 is 0.43 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.265 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.82 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 28ERA 3.28WHIP 1.26W 1–3SV 0
Miles is a sell-high — BABIP luck is driving the ERA.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.5%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~22.7% career norm
- Walk %7.8%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.265 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.28 is 0.43 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm —
167 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
167 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.283
lg avg .315 ▼−.032vs his norm —
243 / 200 TBF
xERA3.28
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.82vs his norm —
243 / 200 TBF
ERA2.85
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.25vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
60 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
243 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
243 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.265
lg avg .295 ▼−.030vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
167 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
243 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
243 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
956 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.5%→23.1%signal28 K — K% 23.5% (signal) tempered to career ~22.7% → projected 23.1% over ~31 remaining…
xERA 3.28signal3.28 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.28 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.8% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.28 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.