MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Spencer Miles
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Spencer Miles

TOR·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.94, 1.16 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 7ERA 2.94WHIP 1.21W 0–1SV 0

Miles is a buy — his skill is stable and his stuff keeps climbing.

His expected ERA is 2.94, well below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The contact he allows is weak across the board: a .267 expected wOBA allowed against a league average of .315, a hard-hit rate of 34.8% against 40.0%, and a barrel rate of 3.6% against 8.0%, all on 247 batted balls. His strikeout rate is 23.1% and he walks just 6.0% of batters, both better than league average. The fastball sits at 96.0 mph, two ticks above league, and it has been ticking upward, with his expected ERA stepping down as it goes. He does not miss bats at an elite rate, but the contact he gives up is soft. The skill is real. Buy. 7 K and a 2.94 ERA over the ROS make him a standard-league asset — acquire before the window closes.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.0%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm
  • Strikeout %23.1%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~22.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.94, 1.16 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.8%
34.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
247 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.6%
3.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm —
247 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.267
believable since Jun 27.267*
lg avg .315 ▼−.048vs his norm —
350 / 200 TBF
xERA2.94
2.94*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.16vs his norm —
350 / 200 TBF
ERA2.77
2.77*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.33vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
87.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.1%
norm23.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
350 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.0%
norm6.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
350 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.274
.274*
lg avg .295 ▼−.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
247 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.9%
8.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
350 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.3%
28.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
350 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.0 mph
96.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
1350 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.1%→22.9%signal7 K — K% 23.1% (signal) tempered to career ~22.7% → projected 22.9% over ~7 remaining IP.
xERA 2.94signal2.94 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.94 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.0% + contactsignal1.21 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.21 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard2.94 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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