Bradgley Rodriguez
Rodriguez is a buy — 98 mph and a 2.37 expected ERA
His expected ERA is 2.37 — 1.73 runs below the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The velocity explains it: 98.3 mph on the fastball, more than four ticks above league, and it has climbed across the sample. He is missing bats at a 15.5% swinging-strike rate against a league average of 11.0%, and he has hitters chasing 34.8% of the time. That contact suppression shows up everywhere: .239 expected wOBA allowed, 30% hard-hit allowed, 4.5% barrels allowed. He strikes out 26.9% and walks only 6.6%. The skill is real and nothing lucky is holding it up. Buy. A 0 K / 2.37 ERA / 1.18 WHIP line is a standard-league asset; acquire now before the ratio gains price him up.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.9%—+2.6% ▲vs his ~24.3% career norm
- Walk %6.6%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~7.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.37, 1.73 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.