MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Bradgley Rodriguez
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Bradgley Rodriguez

SD·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.08, 2.02 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 5ERA 2.08WHIP 1.18W 0–0SV 0

Rodriguez is a buy — elite skill, no luck involved.

His expected ERA is 2.08 — two full runs below the league average of 4.10 — and the trend is moving in the right direction, stepping down across the sample. Nothing in his profile says that number is propped up by luck. He strikes out 27.1% of batters against a league average of 22.0%, and his walk rate of 6.8% is below league average, so he is missing bats and throwing strikes at the same time. The contact he allows is soft: a 28.4% hard-hit rate allowed against a 40.0% league average, and just 3.4% barrels. His fastball is averaging 98.2 mph, and that velocity is stepping up as the sample grows. This is earned run prevention, not sequencing luck. Buy. A 2.08 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 5 K is an asset — buy now before the window closes.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.1%—+2.8% ▲vs his ~24.3% career norm
  • Walk %6.8%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~7.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.08, 2.02 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.4%
28.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.6%vs his norm —
176 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.4%
3.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
176 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.224
believable since Aug 3.224*
lg avg .315 ▼−.091vs his norm —
266 / 200 TBF
xERA2.08
2.08*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.02vs his norm —
266 / 200 TBF
ERA1.93
1.93*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.17vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
65.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.1%
norm27.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm +2.8% ▲
266 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
norm6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
266 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.275
.275*
lg avg .295 ▼−.020vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
176 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.4%
15.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
266 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.6%
34.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
266 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.2 mph
98.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.2 mphvs his norm —
1048 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.1%→25.9%signal5 K — K% 27.1% (signal) tempered to career ~24.3% → projected 25.9% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.08signal2.08 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.08 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.8% + contactsignal1.18 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.18 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard2.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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