173 PA · week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
José Fermín
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High luck-free skill 0.277 is 0.032 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.285 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.73 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .217HR 0R 7RBI 16SB 0
Fermín is a sell-high — BABIP is inflating his line.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %2.2%—+2.2% ▲vs his ~0.0% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.285 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.277 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.1 mphvs his norm —
135 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %28.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.9%vs his norm —
135 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.8%vs his norm +2.2% ▲
135 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.277
lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —
173 / 160 PA
wOBA.309
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
173 / 200 PA
Strikeout %14.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.5%vs his norm —
173 / 60 PA
Walk %6.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
173 / 120 PA
BABIP.285
lg avg .295 ▼−.010vs his norm +.028 ▲BABIP is above his ~.257 norm — expect it to fall.
135 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %5.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm —
173 / 50 PA
Chase %23.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.1%vs his norm —
173 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 2.2%→0.9%signal0 HR — Barrel% 2.2% (signal) tempered to career ~0.0% → projected 0.9%.
BABIP 0.285→0.265 regressednoise.217 AVG — BABIP 0.285 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.261 (xBA 0.239) → 0.265.
on-base + lineup7 R — his run rate over ~139 projected PA.
slugging + lineup16 RBI — his RBI rate over ~139 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 31 G) over ~139 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.