200 PA · week 10
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD
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Jac Caglianone
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Caglianone is a buy — elite contact, no luck, skill is real.
His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample, now at 57.9% — nearly 18 points above league average and already stable at 121 batted ball events. The contact quality is elite across the board: 93.7 mph exit velocity, 15.7% barrels. His expected wOBA is .341, .026 above league, and with 200 plate appearances that number is reliable. His actual wOBA is .317, slightly below xwOBA, meaning he is not overperforming — the production is earned, not lucky. He does strike out 30.5% of the time, which caps the batting-average floor, but the walk rate is near average. The contact is real, the sample supports it, and there is no luck story to fall back on. Buy.
Buy
med0.65
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.341, +0.026 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo93.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+4.7 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL121 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %57.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+17.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL121 / 50 BBE
Barrel %15.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL121 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.341
lg avg .315 ▲+.026trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL200 / 160 PA
wOBA.317
lg avg .315 ▲+.002trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL200 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL200 / 60 PA
Walk %8.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL200 / 120 PA
BABIP.330
lg avg .295 ▲+.035too early to trust
NOISE121 / 800 BIP