MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Keaton Winn
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

Keaton Winn

SF·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Sell High BABIP-against 0.261 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.01 is 0.66 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.81
ROSK 0WHIP 1.25ERA 3.72W 0–0SV 0

Winn is a sell-high — his ERA sits on borrowed BABIP.

His BABIP-against is .261 against a league average of .295, and that gap is the only thing keeping his ERA at 3.35. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 123, so the gap is luck, not skill. The luck-free expected ERA is 4.01 — .66 above what the box score shows — and that is the regression waiting. The contact profile underneath isn't missing bats: he strikes out 18.8% of batters, below the 22% league average, and walks 9.7%, above it. His hard-hit rate allowed of 33.3% and barrel rate of 4.9% are both better than league, but his swinging-strike rate of 10.9% sits right at average. There is no strikeout surge to justify the gap. Limited data — this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Sell high. No strikeout volume behind the 3.72 ERA / 1.25 WHIP makes this a deep-league sell window before regression lands.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %9.7%—+2.8% ▲vs his ~6.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %18.8%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~20.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.261 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.01 is 0.66 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
123 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.9%
4.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
123 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.308
.308*
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
176 / 200 TBF
xERA4.01
4.01*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.09vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
176 / 200 TBF
ERA3.35
3.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.75vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
43 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.8%
norm18.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
176 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.7%
norm9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm +2.8% ▲
176 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
.261*
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
123 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
176 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.7%
27.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
176 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
644 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.8%→19.8%signal0 K — K% 18.8% (signal) lifted to career ~20.8% → projected 19.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.01noise3.72 ERA — xERA 4.01 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 9.7% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 5…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.72 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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