week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Keaton Winn
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.43); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 19ERA 3.69WHIP 1.24W 0–1SV 0
Winn is a hold — near league average, no clear edge either way.
ROS projects K 22 YTD → 19 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.8%—+0.0% ▲vs his ~20.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.43)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed27.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.7%vs his norm —
88 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
88 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.289
lg avg .315 ▼−.026vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
125 / 200 TBF
xERA3.43
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.67vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
125 / 200 TBF
ERA3.09
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.01vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
32 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm +0.0% ▲
125 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm +1.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~6.9% norm — expect it to fall.
125 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.235
lg avg .295 ▼−.060vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
125 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
125 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.4 mphvs his norm —
463 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.8%→20.8%signal19 K — K% 20.8% (signal) tempered to career ~20.8% → projected 20.8% over ~22 remaining…
xERA 3.43noise3.69 ERA — xERA 3.43 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 8.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 5%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.69 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.