MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Keaton Winn
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

Keaton Winn

SF·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Sell High BABIP-against 0.261 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.97 is 0.62 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.80
ROSK 4WHIP 1.25ERA 3.71W 0–0SV 0

Winn is a sell-high — his ERA leans on a BABIP that won't hold.

His ERA is 3.35, and the number holding it there is his BABIP-against: .261, against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 123. That gap is luck, not a skill he owns. The luck-free read is his expected ERA of 3.97, which is .62 above the low ERA on his line — that difference is the regression coming for him. When it does, the stuff underneath is thin. He strikes out just 18.8% of batters against a league average of 22%, and he walks 9.7% against 8%. There is no swing-and-miss carrying this: his swinging-strike rate is 10.9%, dead on the league average. On limited data, the surface looks better than the pitcher. With a 4 K / 3.71 ERA / 1.25 WHIP ROS line, he's a deep-league sell into the window before regression hits.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %9.7%—+2.8% ▲vs his ~6.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %18.8%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~20.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.261 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.97 is 0.62 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
123 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.9%
4.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
123 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.308
.308*
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
176 / 200 TBF
xERA3.97
3.97*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.13vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
176 / 200 TBF
ERA3.35
3.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.75vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
43 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.8%
norm18.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
176 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.7%
norm9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm +2.8% ▲
176 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
.261*
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
123 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
176 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.7%
27.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
176 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
644 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.8%→19.8%signal4 K — K% 18.8% (signal) lifted to career ~20.8% → projected 19.8% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.97noise3.71 ERA — xERA 3.97 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 9.7% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 5…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups