week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Tejay Antone
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.70 is 0.59 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.89 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0–0
Antone is a sell-high — his ERA leans on BABIP luck
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.3%—−6.5% ▼vs his ~30.8% career norm
- Walk %7.7%—−3.4% ▼vs his ~11.1% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.70 is 0.59 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.4%vs his norm —
152 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
152 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.297
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —
235 / 200 TBF
xERA3.70
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.40vs his norm —
235 / 200 TBF
ERA3.11
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.99vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
55 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm −6.5% ▼
235 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −3.4% ▼
235 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.259
lg avg .295 ▼−.036vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
152 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
235 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
235 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
907 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.3%→27.3%signal0 K — K% 24.3% (signal) lifted to career ~30.8% → projected 27.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.70signal3.70 ERA — xERA 3.70 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 9 IP.
BB% 7.7% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.