MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tejay Antone
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekNO CALL

Tejay Antone

CIN·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.75, 0.35 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.70
ROSK 4ERA 3.73WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0–1

Antone is a buy — the skill is earned and the trend is real.

His expected ERA is 3.75, which is 0.35 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The velocity is doing work here: 95.1 mph on the fastball, above the league average, and it has been climbing across the season. His expected wOBA allowed is .300, ahead of league average, and he is missing bats at a 24.5% clip with a 12.6% swinging-strike rate. That is a strike-thrower with swing-and-miss stuff. Nothing on this page is propping him up — no suppressed BABIP-against, no luck stat to give back. The expected ERA has been stepping down, not up, and the fastball is stepping up. The production is real and the sample supports it. Buy. 4 K and a 3.73 ERA is a deep-league asset worth stashing now — no reason to wait.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.5%—−6.3% ▼vs his ~30.8% career norm
  • Walk %7.7%—−3.4% ▼vs his ~11.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.75, 0.35 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.1%
believable since Jun 1535.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
134 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.2%
8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
134 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.300
.300*
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —
208 / 200 TBF
xERA3.75
3.75*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.35vs his norm —
208 / 200 TBF
ERA3.54
3.54*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.56vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
48.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.5%
norm24.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm −6.3% ▼
208 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
norm7.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −3.4% ▼
208 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.264
.264*
lg avg .295 ▼−.031vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
134 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.6%
12.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
208 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.0%
34.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
208 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
95.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
816 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.5%→27.6%signal4 K — K% 24.5% (signal) lifted to career ~30.8% → projected 27.6% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 3.75signal3.73 ERA — xERA 3.75 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 9 IP.
BB% 7.7% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-1 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.73 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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