MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tejay Antone
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL

Tejay Antone

CIN·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.203 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.93 is 0.68 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.82
ROSK 18ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 1–4

Antone is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.

His ERA is 2.25, but the number behind it is not sustainable. His BABIP-against is .203, 92 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 79. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip the luck out and his expected ERA is 2.93 — still good, but nearly 0.70 runs higher than the box score shows. His strikeout rate is league average, his walk-inducing chase rate is elevated at 34.1%, and his hard-hit suppression is solid but not elite (32.9% hard-hit allowed vs. 40% league). limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. The ERA is real on the scoreboard; the xERA is the truth. Sell high. 18 K / 0-0 W / 1-4 SV with 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP make this a deep-league sell window.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.1%—−8.7% ▼vs his ~30.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.203 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.93 is 0.68 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.9%
believable since Jun 1532.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.1%vs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
79 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.268
.268*
lg avg .315 ▼−.047vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
113 / 200 TBF
xERA2.93
2.93*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.17vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
113 / 200 TBF
ERA2.25
2.25*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.85vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
28 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.1%
norm22.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm −8.7% ▼
113 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.2%
norm6.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm −4.9% ▼Walk % is below his ~11.1% norm — expect it to rise.
113 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.203
.203*
lg avg .295 ▼−.092vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
79 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
11.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
113 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.1%
34.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
113 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.3 mph
95.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.3 mphvs his norm —
426 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.1%→27.6%signal18 K — K% 22.1% (signal) lifted to career ~30.8% → projected 27.6% over ~18 remaining IP.
xERA 2.93noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.93 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 9 IP.
BB% 6.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.22 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)1-4 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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