MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Henry Bolte
473 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL

Henry Bolte

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.317); strikeout rate 28% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.381 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Bolte is a hold — average skill, high strikeouts, no edge

His expected wOBA is .317, two points above the league average of .315, and he has 473 plate appearances — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. On the surface it looks like more: his actual wOBA is .341, but his BABIP is .381 against a league average of .295, and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 285. Some of that average is going to come back. The real skill is league average, and the strikeout rate is the thing to watch — 28.1% against a league average of 22%, and it has been stepping up across the sample. His swinging-strike rate is 16.4% against 11% league, so the contact problem is not a blip. There is one genuinely good number in his profile: a 48.6% hard-hit rate on 285 batted balls, well above league, though his barrel rate and walk rate both sit right at average. Nothing here is broken and nothing here is a bargain. Hold.

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.317)
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.381 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.0 mph
believable since Jun 1191.0 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
285 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.6%
48.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
285 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.1%
8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
285 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.317
.317*
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —
473 / 160 PA
wOBA.341
.341*
lg avg .315 ▲+.026vs his norm —
473 / 200 PA
Strikeout %28.1%
28.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
473 / 60 PA
Walk %8.2%
8.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
473 / 120 PA
BABIP.381
.381*
lg avg .295 ▲+.086vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
285 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.4%
16.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
473 / 50 PA
Chase %28.4%
28.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
473 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.1%→8.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.1% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 8.1%.
BABIP 0.381→0.341 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.381 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.319 (xBA 0.246) → 0.341.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (4 in 17 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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