MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Henry Bolte
403 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL

Henry Bolte

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.315) — BABIP 0.379 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .258R 2RBI 2SB 2

Bolte is a hold — the surface line is BABIP, the skill is average.

His expected wOBA is .315, exactly league average, and he has 403 plate appearances — past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .339, and the gap between the two is his BABIP of .379 against a league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 245, so a chunk of that average is going to come back to him. His contact quality is good but not overwhelming: 90.8 mph average exit velocity and a 48.0% hard-hit rate, both above league, with a barrel rate of 7.3% right at league. The strikeout rate is the concern — 27.5% with a 16.3% swinging-strike rate, both well above league. Limited data here, and nothing unstable enough to act on either way. Hold.

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.315)
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.379 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.8 mph
believable since Jun 1190.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +1.8 mphvs his norm —
245 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.0%
48.0%*
lg avg 40.0% +8.0%vs his norm —
245 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.3%
7.3%*
lg avg 8.0% −0.7%vs his norm —
245 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.315
.315*
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —
403 / 160 PA
wOBA.339
.339*
lg avg .315 +.024vs his norm —
403 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.5%
27.5%*
lg avg 22.0% +5.5%vs his norm —
403 / 60 PA
Walk %8.2%
8.2%*
lg avg 8.5% −0.3%vs his norm —
403 / 120 PA
BABIP.379
.379*
lg avg .295 +.084vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league averageexpect it to fall.
245 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.3%
16.3%*
lg avg 11.0% +5.3%vs his norm —
403 / 50 PA
Chase %28.5%
28.5%*
lg avg 28.5% 0.0%vs his norm —
403 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.3%→7.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 7.3% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 7.4%.
BABIP 0.379→0.338 regressednoise.258 AVG — BABIP 0.379 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.321 (xBA 0.247) → 0.338.
on-base + lineup2 R — his run rate over ~35 projected PA.
slugging + lineup2 RBI — his RBI rate over ~35 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (4 in 17 G) over ~35 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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