61 PA · week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
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Henry Bolte
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Bolte is a sell-high — BABIP is inflating his surface line.
His actual wOBA is .326, but that number is built on a BABIP of .385 — 90 points above the league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has just 39. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected wOBA is .270, .056 below his actual wOBA, and that difference will narrow when the BABIP normalizes. His strikeout rate is near league average, so there is no standout skill to offset the coming regression. Limited data: this call rests on a small sample, but the gap between surface and skill is large enough to act on. Sell high.
Sell High
med0.69
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.385 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.270 is 0.056 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphtoo early to trust
NOISE39 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.7%too early to trust
NOISE39 / 50 BBE
Barrel %0.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−8.0%too early to trust
NOISE39 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.270
lg avg .315 ▼−.045too early to trust
NOISE61 / 160 PA
wOBA.326
lg avg .315 ▲+.011too early to trust
NOISE61 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL61 / 60 PA
Walk %9.8%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.3%too early to trust
NOISE61 / 120 PA
BABIP.385
lg avg .295 ▲+.090too early to trust
NOISE39 / 800 BIP