week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Coleman Crow
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
new call as of September 30, 2026
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (4.99); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Crow is a hold — the skill is average and the strikeouts aren't coming.
ROS projects K 8 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.99)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
68 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
68 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.340
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
85 / 200 TBF
xERA4.99
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.89vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
85 / 200 TBF
ERA5.30
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.20vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
18.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %11.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.2%vs his norm —
85 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
85 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.288
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
68 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
85 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.0%vs his norm —
85 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.7 mphvs his norm —
295 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 11.8%→13.8%signal0 K — K% 11.8% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 13.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.99noise4.10 ERA — xERA 4.99 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 14 IP.
BB% 7.1% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.