MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Colt Emerson
241 PA · week 31
this weekSELL
last weekNO CALL

Colt Emerson

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
new call
Sell stable xwOBA 0.248 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 34% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.68
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Emerson is a sell — below-league bat, no luck to give back.

The power is simply not there: 86.7 mph average exit velocity, six mph under league, with a 31.2% hard-hit rate and a 5.0% barrel rate — both well below league — across 141 batted balls, past the point where contact quality becomes reliable. His expected wOBA is .248, .067 under the league average of .315, and his actual wOBA of .256 sits right on top of it, so nothing luck-related is masking a better hitter. The strikeout problem compounds the issue: he whiffs in 34.4% of plate appearances, chases 38.9% of pitches out of the zone, and swings through 18.3% of them, all well above league and stable. Worse, his expected wOBA is stepping down across the sample while his strikeout rate climbs. There is no slump waiting to break here — this is the level he's at. Sell. Projected 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG is deep-league waiver fodder — fade the count line, drop and stream.

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.248 below league with no luck excuse
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 34% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.7 mph
86.7 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.3 mphvs his norm —
141 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %31.2%
31.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.8%vs his norm —
141 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.0%
5.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
141 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.248
.248*
lg avg .315 ▼−.067vs his norm —
241 / 160 PA
wOBA.256
.256*
lg avg .315 ▼−.059vs his norm —
241 / 200 PA
Strikeout %34.4%
34.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+12.4%vs his norm —
241 / 60 PA
Walk %6.2%
6.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
241 / 120 PA
BABIP.258
.258*
lg avg .295 ▼−.037vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
141 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.3%
18.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.3%vs his norm —
241 / 50 PA
Chase %38.9%
38.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.4%vs his norm —
241 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.0%→5.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.0% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 5.6%.
BABIP 0.258→0.235 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.258 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.196) → 0.235.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 14 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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