week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Hunter Gaddis
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.81 is 1.02 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.261 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 3ERA 3.77WHIP 1.33W 0–0SV 0–1
Gaddis is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %9.6%—+2.8% ▲vs his ~6.8% career norm
- Strikeout %22.4%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~21.5% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.261 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.81 is 1.02 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.9%vs his norm —
147 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
147 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.302
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —
219 / 200 TBF
xERA3.81
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.29vs his norm —
219 / 200 TBF
ERA2.79
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.31vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
51.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
219 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm +2.8% ▲
219 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
219 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
219 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
844 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.4%→22.0%signal3 K — K% 22.4% (signal) tempered to career ~21.5% → projected 22.0% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 3.81signal3.77 ERA — xERA 3.81 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 14 IP.
BB% 9.6% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-1 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.