168 PA · week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
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Tyler Stephenson
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Stephenson is a buy-low — slump is BABIP noise, not his bat.
His expected wOBA is .327, above the league average of .315, and it has crossed its stability threshold — the skill is real. His contact quality is even better, with a 43.1% hard-hit rate that has been stepping up across the sample, well past the 50 BBE mark needed for reliability. The reason his actual wOBA is .279 is his BABIP: .245 against a league average of .295, based on just 102 balls in play. BABIP needs around 800 to stabilize, so this gap is pure luck. His 12.5% walk rate is an extra plus. The bat is fine; the bounces are not. Buy low.
Buy Low
med0.70
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.245 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL102 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL102 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL102 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.327
lg avg .315 ▲+.012trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL168 / 160 PA
wOBA.279
lg avg .315 ▼−.036too early to trust
NOISE168 / 200 PA
Strikeout %26.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL168 / 60 PA
Walk %12.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+4.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL168 / 120 PA
BABIP.245
lg avg .295 ▼−.050too early to trust
NOISE102 / 800 BIP