MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tyler Stephenson
468 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY-LOW

Tyler Stephenson

CIN·C
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY-LOW on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.326); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Stephenson is a hold — average line, contact trending up.

His expected wOBA is .326, .011 above the league average of .315, with enough plate appearances behind it to trust the number. His actual wOBA of .320 tracks right alongside it, so nothing on his stat line is being propped up or dragged down by luck. That balance is the whole story here. The contact quality is quietly better than the surface line: 90.8 mph average exit velocity and a 12.2% barrel rate both clear league average, and that expected wOBA has been climbing across the sample. He strikes out 27.4% of the time, which trims the batting average, so the production will come in uneven stretches rather than a steady stream. Nothing unstable is driving this, and nothing is hiding underneath. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %12.2%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.326)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.8 mph
90.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
288 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.1%
44.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
288 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.2%
norm12.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
288 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.326
believable since May 29.326*
lg avg .315 ▲+.011vs his norm —
468 / 160 PA
wOBA.320
.320*
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —
468 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.4%
27.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
468 / 60 PA
Walk %10.5%
10.5%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
468 / 120 PA
BABIP.308
norm.308*
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm −.005 ▼BABIP is below his ~.313 norm — expect it to rise.
288 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
468 / 50 PA
Chase %22.3%
22.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —
468 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.2%→11.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 12.2% (signal) tempered to career ~9.7% → projected 11.2%.
BABIP 0.308→0.299 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.308 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.294 (xBA 0.235) → 0.299.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 47 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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