257 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY-LOW
Tyler Stephenson
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from BUY-LOW on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.331, +0.016 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.63 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .232R 11RBI 17SB 0
Stephenson is a buy — elite contact, no luck needed.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %9.6%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~9.7% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.331, +0.016 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
166 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
166 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
166 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —
257 / 160 PA
wOBA.304
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —
257 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
257 / 60 PA
Walk %10.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
257 / 120 PA
BABIP.300
lg avg .295 ▲+.005vs his norm −.013 ▼BABIP is below his ~.313 norm — expect it to rise.
166 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
257 / 50 PA
Chase %21.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−7.4%vs his norm —
257 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.6%→9.6%signal4 HR — Barrel% 9.6% (signal) held to career ~9.7% → projected 9.6%.
BABIP 0.300→0.306 regressednoise.232 AVG — BABIP 0.300 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.307 (xBA 0.244) → 0.306.
on-base + lineup11 R — his run rate over ~172 projected PA.
slugging + lineup17 RBI — his RBI rate over ~172 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 47 G) over ~172 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.