MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Trey Yesavage
week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Trey Yesavage

TOR·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.31, 0.79 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.84
ROSK 58ERA 3.31WHIP 1.40W 2–4SV 0

Yesavage is a buy — xERA shows stable skill above league.

His xERA sits at 3.31, nearly 0.80 below league average, and with 311 batters faced it is reliable. The metric is stepping down across the sample, meaning he is trending better. He suppresses hard contact well — only 35.3% hard-hit and 5.5% barrels allowed, both comfortably below league, on more than enough batted balls to trust. His 94.4 mph fastball is a touch above average and climbing. The only wart is a 12.5% walk rate, elevated by four percentage points, which caps his ceiling but does not undermine the base skill. His actual ERA may drift if the walk rate persists, but the expected runs allowed are earned, not lucky. Buy. With 58 K and a 3.31 ERA, he's a deep-league asset worth acquiring now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.2%—−3.9% ▼vs his ~26.1% career norm
  • Walk %12.5%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~11.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.31, 0.79 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.3%
35.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
201 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.5%
5.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
201 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.284
believable since Jun 19.284*
lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —
311 / 200 TBF
xERA3.31
3.31*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.79vs his norm —
311 / 200 TBF
ERA3.72
3.72*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.38vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
75 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.2%
norm22.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm −3.9% ▼
311 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.5%
norm12.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
311 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.214
.214*
lg avg .295 ▼−.081vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
201 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.8%
13.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
311 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.8%
28.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
311 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
94.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
1237 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.2%→23.7%signal58 K — K% 22.2% (signal) lifted to career ~26.1% → projected 23.7% over ~51 remaining IP.
xERA 3.31signal3.31 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.31 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 12.5% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.275 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep58 K ROS, 3.31 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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