MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Trey Yesavage
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Trey Yesavage

TOR·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Buy stable xERA 3.37, 0.73 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.82
ROSK 13ERA 3.37WHIP 1.36W 0–1SV 0

Yesavage is a buy — the contact suppression is earned.

His expected ERA is 3.37, three-quarters of a run better than the league average of 4.10, and it has been stepping down across the season. That kind of movement says the skill is settling in, not a hot stretch. He has faced 386 batters, well past the point where this number becomes reliable. The contact quality allowed backs it up: a .285 expected wOBA against, a 34% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40%, and a 6.1% barrel rate against 8%. He strikes out 23.6% of batters and gets swings on 14.2% of pitches outside the zone. There is one hole — his 11.9% walk rate is well above league — but the contact suppression is real. Buy. 13 K and a 3.37 ERA is a deep-league asset worth adding now — the ratios play even if wins never come.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.6%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~26.1% career norm
  • Walk %11.9%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~11.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.37, 0.73 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.0%
34.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm —
247 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.1%
6.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
247 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.285
.285*
lg avg .315 ▼−.030vs his norm —
386 / 200 TBF
xERA3.37
3.37*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.73vs his norm —
386 / 200 TBF
ERA3.65
3.65*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.45vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
93.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.6%
norm23.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
386 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.9%
norm11.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
386 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.218
.218*
lg avg .295 ▼−.077vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
247 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.2%
14.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
386 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.0%
30.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
386 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.3 mph
94.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
1549 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.6%→24.4%signal13 K — K% 23.6% (signal) lifted to career ~26.1% → projected 24.4% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 3.37signal3.37 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.37 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 11.9% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.271 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep13 K ROS, 3.37 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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