142 PA · week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Ryan Kreidler
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Sell High BABIP 0.292 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.297 is 0.035 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.64 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .187R 25RBI 23SB 0
Kreidler is a sell-high — his BABIP is deceptive.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.292 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.297 is 0.035 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
101 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %33.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —
101 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
101 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.297
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
142 / 160 PA
wOBA.332
lg avg .315 ▲+.017vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
142 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
142 / 60 PA
Walk %8.5%
lg avg 8.5% 0.0%vs his norm —
142 / 120 PA
BABIP.292
lg avg .295 ▼−.003vs his norm +.062 ▲BABIP is above his ~.230 norm — expect it to fall.
101 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
142 / 50 PA
Chase %26.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
142 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.9%→7.9%signal3 HR — Barrel% 7.9% (signal) held to league ~8.0% → projected 7.9%.
BABIP 0.292→0.240 regressednoise.187 AVG — BABIP 0.292 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.232 (xBA 0.220) → 0.240.
on-base + lineup25 R — his run rate over ~134 projected PA.
slugging + lineup23 RBI — his RBI rate over ~134 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 20 G) over ~134 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.