Jackson Merrill

Merrill is a buy — contact is climbing and the line lags it

His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample and now sits at 47.9%, well clear of the 40.0% league average, and his expected wOBA has climbed with it to .341 — .026 above league. Both numbers are past the point where they become reliable, so this is skill, not a hot stretch. His actual wOBA is .305, thirty-six points below his expected mark, which means the results are trailing the contact rather than the other way around. That gap is the opening. The strikeout rate is a mild concern at 24.0%, and he chases 37.1% of pitches against a 28.5% league average, so the batting average will run uneven. None of it undercuts the core case: he is hitting the ball hard and the surface line has not caught up. Buy.