MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jackson Merrill
392 PA · week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Jackson Merrill

SD·CF
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.274 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.66
ROSHR 5AVG .232R 22RBI 18SB 8

Merrill is a buy-low — BABIP noise masks solid contact.

His expected wOBA sits at .306, just nine points below league average, while his actual wOBA is .276 — a 30-point gap driven entirely by a suppressed BABIP of .274. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 265, so that gap is luck, not skill. Meanwhile, his contact quality is stepping up: hard-hit rate at 44.9% (above 40% league), barrel rate at 9.1% (above 8%), and average exit velocity 89.4 mph (above 89.0). All three are past their stabilization thresholds. Strikeouts are a bit elevated at 25%, but he also walks at a solid 7.1% and has a 14.8% whiff rate. The bat is real; the surface is not. Buy low.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.1%—−2.9% ▼vs his ~12.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.274 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.4 mph
89.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
265 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.9%
44.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
265 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.1%
norm9.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm −2.9% ▼
265 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.306
.306*
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
392 / 160 PA
wOBA.276
.276*
lg avg .315 ▼−.039vs his norm —
392 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.0%
25.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
392 / 60 PA
Walk %7.1%
7.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
392 / 120 PA
BABIP.274
norm.274*
lg avg .295 ▼−.021vs his norm −.041 ▼BABIP is below his ~.315 norm — expect it to rise.
265 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.8%
14.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
392 / 50 PA
Chase %35.3%
35.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
392 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.1%→10.4%signal5 HR — Barrel% 9.1% (signal) lifted to career ~12.0% → projected 10.4%.
BABIP 0.274→0.290 regressednoise.232 AVG — BABIP 0.274 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.298 (xBA 0.241) → 0.290.
on-base + lineup22 R — his run rate over ~192 projected PA.
slugging + lineup18 RBI — his RBI rate over ~192 projected PA.
run rate / role8 SB — his steal rate (10 in 55 G) over ~192 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups