229 PA · week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
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Jackson Merrill
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Merrill is a buy-low — his bat is intact, the line is not.
His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample and now sits at 45.7%, nearly six points above the league average. His exit velocity and barrel rate are also above average, and all three have cleared their stabilization thresholds. His actual wOBA is .276, well below the .317 expected wOBA, and the gap traces to his BABIP: .264, 31 points below league average. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 151. That gap is luck, not a loss of bat-to-ball skill. The contact quality is real and the sample supports it. The surface results will catch up when the bounces do. Buy low.
Buy Low
med0.68
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.264 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL151 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL151 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL151 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.317
lg avg .315 ▲+.002trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL229 / 160 PA
wOBA.276
lg avg .315 ▼−.039trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL229 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL229 / 60 PA
Walk %8.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL229 / 120 PA
BABIP.264
lg avg .295 ▼−.031too early to trust
NOISE151 / 800 BIP