MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jackson Merrill
664 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY-LOW

Jackson Merrill

SD·CF
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY-LOW on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.347, +0.032 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.66
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Merrill is a buy — the contact is real and still climbing

His hard-hit rate is 48.7%, nearly nine points above the league average of 40.0%, and it has been stepping up across the sample. That is contact quality you can trust at 460 batted balls, well past the point where the number becomes reliable. The same upward shape shows in his expected wOBA, which sits at .347 against a league average of .315. His actual wOBA is .320 — below the expected figure, so no luck is padding the line. This is a bat earning more than the surface shows, and the direction of the underlying numbers says the gap closes in his favor. The strikeout rate is a touch high at 24.1%, but it does not undercut the skill story. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %12.4%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~12.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.347, +0.032 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.5 mph
91.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.5 mphvs his norm —
460 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.7%
48.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.7%vs his norm —
460 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.4%
norm12.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
460 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.347
.347*
lg avg .315 ▲+.032vs his norm —
664 / 160 PA
wOBA.320
.320*
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —
664 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.1%
24.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
664 / 60 PA
Walk %6.2%
6.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
664 / 120 PA
BABIP.302
norm.302*
lg avg .295 ▲+.007vs his norm −.013 ▼BABIP is below his ~.315 norm — expect it to rise.
460 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.5%
15.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
664 / 50 PA
Chase %37.6%
37.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.1%vs his norm —
664 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.4%→12.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 12.4% (signal) tempered to career ~12.0% → projected 12.3%.
BABIP 0.302→0.317 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.302 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.338 (xBA 0.270) → 0.317.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (10 in 55 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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