week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Tyler Davis
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.42); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 5ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–1SV 0–0
Davis is a hold — league average with nothing unstable in play
ROS projects K 17 YTD → 5 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.42)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
81 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
81 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.287
lg avg .315 ▼−.028vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
123 / 200 TBF
xERA3.42
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.68vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
123 / 200 TBF
ERA3.52
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.58vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
30.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
123 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
123 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.228
lg avg .295 ▼−.067vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
81 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
123 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
123 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
470 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.1%→21.7%signal5 K — K% 21.1% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 21.7% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.42noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.42 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 13.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.55 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.