week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
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Grant Anderson
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Anderson is a sell-high — BABIP luck is flattering his ERA.
His BABIP-against sits at .217, a level no pitcher sustains. With only 63 balls in play, that number is not reliable — luck is burying hits for outs, not skill. The ERA looks good at 2.59, but the stable metrics tell a different story: his expected ERA is 3.07, and that gap will close. Contact quality allowed is right at league average — 41.3% hard-hit and 7.9% barrels — and his strikeout rate is 20.2%, a tick below the league mark. There is no elite skill propping up the scoreboard. The defense-independent data says regression is baked in once the BABIP normalizes. Limited data, but the direction is clear: this is a sell-high moment. Sell high.
Sell High
med0.74
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.217 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.07 is 0.48 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL63 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL63 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.279
lg avg .315 ▼−.036too early to trust
NOISE89 / 200 TBF
xERA3.07
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.03too early to trust
NOISE89 / 200 TBF
ERA2.59
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.51too early to trust
NOISE24.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL89 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%too early to trust
NOISE89 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.217
lg avg .295 ▼−.078too early to trust
NOISE63 / 800 BIP