MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Grant Anderson
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Grant Anderson

MIL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Buy stable xERA 3.13, 0.97 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.89
ROSK 4ERA 3.13WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0

Anderson is a buy — his xERA is real and the sample proves it.

His expected ERA is 3.13, nearly a full run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The xERA has been stepping down across the sample, which means he is not just holding a good number — he is earning it. His xwOBA allowed is .275, well below the league average of .315, and that gap is the contact suppression doing the work. He gives up hard contact at 37.1%, below league, and barrels at 7.5%, also below league, on a sample past the stabilization point. His walk rate of 9.8% is a touch above league, but the strikeout rate and swing-and-miss numbers are right where they need to be. The run prevention is real. Buy. Deep-league holds asset at 4 K, 3.13 ERA, 1.32 WHIP — no saves, so stream the ratios, don't chase the role.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.1%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~22.8% career norm
  • Walk %9.8%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~9.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.13, 0.97 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.1%
37.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
159 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.275
.275*
lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —
235 / 200 TBF
xERA3.13
3.13*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.97vs his norm —
235 / 200 TBF
ERA3.36
3.36*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.74vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
59 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.1%
norm22.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
235 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.8%
norm9.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
235 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.232
.232*
lg avg .295 ▼−.063vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
159 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
235 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.1%
29.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
235 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
93.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
915 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.1%→22.4%signal4 K — K% 22.1% (signal) lifted to career ~22.8% → projected 22.4% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.13signal3.13 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.13 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.8% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.13 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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