MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Grant Anderson
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Grant Anderson

MIL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.15, 0.95 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.89
ROSK 0ERA 3.15WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0

Anderson is a buy — his expected ERA is nearly a full run better than league

His expected ERA is 3.15, 0.95 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The gap is not a fluke of sequencing: he is limiting hard contact to 37.1%, a bit better than the 40.0% league mark, and holding barrels to 7.5% against 8.0% league, both on samples past the point where those rates stabilize. His expected wOBA allowed of .275 sits .040 below league. The strikeout rate is league average at 22.1% and the walk rate is a touch high at 9.8%, so he is not missing bats at an unusual clip — the run prevention comes from contact quality. And the expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, which is the direction you want. The skill is earned, not propped up. Buy. 0 K / 3.15 ERA / 1.32 WHIP with no saves caps the ceiling, so deep-league only — still a stash-worthy asset where holds count.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.1%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~22.8% career norm
  • Walk %9.8%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~9.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.15, 0.95 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.1%
37.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
believable since May 297.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
159 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.275
.275*
lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —
235 / 200 TBF
xERA3.15
3.15*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.95vs his norm —
235 / 200 TBF
ERA3.36
3.36*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.74vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
59 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.1%
norm22.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
235 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.8%
norm9.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
235 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.232
.232*
lg avg .295 ▼−.063vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
159 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
235 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.1%
29.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
235 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
93.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
915 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.1%→22.4%signal0 K — K% 22.1% (signal) lifted to career ~22.8% → projected 22.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.15signal3.15 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.15 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.8% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.15 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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