week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Emmet Sheehan
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.88); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 61ERA 3.88WHIP 1.23W 2–4SV 0
Sheehan is a hold — league average, no luck, nothing to buy or sell.
ROS projects K 62 YTD → 61 ROS, ERA 4.50 YTD → 3.88 ROS, WHIP 1.16 YTD → 1.23 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.6%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~27.6% career norm
- Walk %7.4%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.88)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
226 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
226 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
350 / 200 TBF
xERA3.88
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.22vs his norm —
350 / 200 TBF
ERA4.81
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.71vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
82.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm −1.0% ▼
350 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
350 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.290
lg avg .295 ▼−.005vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
226 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
350 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —
350 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
1466 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.6%→27.0%signal61 K — K% 26.6% (signal) lifted to career ~27.6% → projected 27.0% over ~56 remaining IP.
xERA 3.88signal3.88 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.88 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.4% + contactsignal1.23 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.23 skill WHIP.
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep61 K ROS, 3.88 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.