Is Troy Johnston a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Hold — mixed signals; no compelling reason to add or drop right now.

What is Troy Johnston's rest-of-season outlook?

Roughly league-average with nothing unstable driving it. Hold.

449 PA · week 31

this weekHOLD

last weekSELL-HIGH

Troy Johnston

COL·RF

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026

Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.323) — BABIP 0.337 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Johnston is a hold — average skill, quiet profile, no edge.

His expected wOBA is .323 against a league average of .315 — close enough to average that there is no gap to buy into or sell against. His actual wOBA of .329 tracks right with it, so nothing on the surface is outrunning the skill underneath. The expected wOBA has been stepping up across the sample, which is the one thing worth watching, but it has only climbed to league average so far, not past it. His contact quality is mixed and capped by a 2.2% barrel rate, well under the 8.0% league mark, though his strikeout rate of 18.5% sits below league and gives him a stable floor. His .337 BABIP is 42 points above league and needs around 800 balls in play to trust — he has 320 — so some of that average will come back. Hold. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG line makes him waiver fringe — a streaming-only hold to drop the moment a hot bat appears.

VS His Norm

Barrel %2.2%—−7.1% ▼vs his ~9.3% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.323)
babipNOISEBABIP 0.337 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo89.7 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —

320 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %36.9%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —

320 / 50 BBE

Barrel %2.2%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.8%vs his norm −7.1% ▼

320 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.323

lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —

449 / 160 PA

wOBA.329

lg avg .315 ▲+.014vs his norm —

449 / 200 PA

Strikeout %18.5%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —

449 / 60 PA

Walk %8.2%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —

449 / 120 PA

BABIP.337

lg avg .295 ▲+.042vs his norm +.008 ▲BABIP is above his ~.329 norm — expect it to fall.

320 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %13.0%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —

449 / 50 PA

Chase %36.2%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.7%vs his norm —

449 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 2.2%→4.9%signal0 HR — Barrel% 2.2% (signal) lifted to career ~9.3% → projected 4.9%.

BABIP 0.337→0.339 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.337 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.340 (xBA 0.276) → 0.339.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (3 in 56 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons