314 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH
Troy Johnston
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.330, +0.015 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.359 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.63 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .281R 20RBI 22SB 3
Johnston is a buy — skill is real, but BABIP will regress.
Stable, above-average skill — but an elevated, unstable BABIP means some of the average will give back. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %2.2%—−7.1% ▼vs his ~9.3% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.330, +0.015 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.359 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
227 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
227 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.8%vs his norm −7.1% ▼
227 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.330
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —
314 / 160 PA
wOBA.351
lg avg .315 ▲+.036vs his norm —
314 / 200 PA
Strikeout %16.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm —
314 / 60 PA
Walk %9.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
314 / 120 PA
BABIP.359
lg avg .295 ▲+.064vs his norm +.030 ▲BABIP is above his ~.329 norm — expect it to fall.
227 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
314 / 50 PA
Chase %34.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —
314 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 2.2%→5.5%signal3 HR — Barrel% 2.2% (signal) lifted to career ~9.3% → projected 5.5%.
BABIP 0.359→0.350 regressednoise.281 AVG — BABIP 0.359 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.346 (xBA 0.281) → 0.350.
on-base + lineup20 R — his run rate over ~182 projected PA.
slugging + lineup22 RBI — his RBI rate over ~182 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (3 in 56 G) over ~182 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.