Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryTroy
26HR ←8
63R ←38
56RBI ←41
7SB ←5
.253AVG →.297
Current Season
AaronCategoryTroy
17HR ←2
43R ←23
38RBI ←25
5SB ←3
.248AVG →.312
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Judge
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.415, +0.100 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Troy Johnston
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.404 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.330 is 0.033 below the surface — regression coming
Aaron Judge: 26 HR / 63 R. Troy Johnston: 8 HR / 38 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).