Rest of Season Projection
CodyCategoryTroy
11HR ←8
55R ←38
56RBI ←41
7SB ←5
.276AVG →.297
Current Season
CodyCategoryTroy
8HR ←2
37R ←23
38RBI ←25
5SB ←3
.271AVG →.312
What Each Player's System Trusts
Cody Bellinger
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.380, +0.065 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Troy Johnston
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.404 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.330 is 0.033 below the surface — regression coming
Cody Bellinger: 11 HR / 55 R. Troy Johnston: 8 HR / 38 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).