Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryTroy
15HR ←8
39R ←38
32RBI →41
3SB →5
.281AVG →.295
Current Season
BrandonCategoryTroy
7HR ←2
26R ←23
21RBI →25
2SB →3
.258AVG →.312
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Nimmo
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.381, +0.066 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Troy Johnston
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.399 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.329 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Nimmo leads in power (15 HR vs 8 HR) while Johnston edges in average (.295 vs .281). The verdict spread — buy Nimmo, sell-high Johnston — reflects the regression risk in Johnston's surface stats.