week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH
Reynaldo López
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.82 +0.72 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.77 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.43WHIP 1.38W 0–0SV 0
López is a sell — nothing under the hood to fix this.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Walk %9.8%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~8.6% career norm
- Strikeout %21.1%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~22.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.82 +0.72 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
237 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
237 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.335
lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —
346 / 200 TBF
xERA4.82
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.72vs his norm —
346 / 200 TBF
ERA4.54
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.44vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
79.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −1.0% ▼
346 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
346 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.307
lg avg .295 ▲+.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
237 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
346 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
346 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
1368 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.1%→21.5%signal0 K — K% 21.1% (signal) lifted to career ~22.1% → projected 21.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.82signal4.43 ERA — xERA 4.82 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 35 IP.
BB% 9.8% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.43 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.