MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Reynaldo López
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Reynaldo López

ATL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.48 is 0.98 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.263 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 30ERA 4.21WHIP 1.34W 1–3SV 0

López is a sell-high — ERA built on shaky BABIP luck.

His ERA is 3.50, but the story underneath says regression is coming. The main floor-support is his BABIP-against, sitting at .263 — well below the .295 league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 179. That gap is luck, not sustained skill. The real picture shows in his expected ERA of 4.48, nearly a full run higher than the surface mark, and his xERA has been stepping up across the sample. His strikeout rate and walk rate are both near league average, so there is no elite-stuff story to lean on when the luck normalizes. The scoreboard is flattering, but the data points to a correction. Sell high. 30 K, 4.21 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 1-3 W with 0 SV — this drop-tier profile needs to be moved off your roster.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.8%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~22.1% career norm
  • Walk %9.6%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~8.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.263 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.48 is 0.98 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.2%
35.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
179 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.7%
6.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
179 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.327
believable since Jun 28.327*
lg avg .315 ▲+.012vs his norm —
260 / 200 TBF
xERA4.48
4.48*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.38vs his norm —
260 / 200 TBF
ERA3.50
3.50*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.60vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
61.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.8%
norm20.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
260 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
norm9.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
260 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.263
.263*
lg avg .295 ▼−.032vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
179 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
260 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.9%
26.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
260 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
94.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
1052 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.8%→21.4%signal30 K — K% 20.8% (signal) lifted to career ~22.1% → projected 21.4% over ~34 remaining IP.
xERA 4.48signal4.21 ERA — xERA 4.48 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 35 IP.
BB% 9.6% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.21 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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