week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Reynaldo López
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
López is a sell-high — ERA is built on BABIP luck.
His ERA sits at 3.31, but the underlying numbers do not support it. The key driver is his BABIP-against of .258, well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 103, so that gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 4.77, a full 1.46 runs higher than the surface ERA, pointing directly at regression. Limited data: this call rests on a 35-inning sample where the luck story is clear. His strikeout rate (20.5%) and contact suppression (hard-hit and barrel rates) are near league average, so there is no elite skill to fall back on once the BABIP normalizes. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.77 is 1.46 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL103 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL103 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.342
lg avg .315 ▲+.027too early to trust
NOISE151 / 200 TBF
xERA4.77
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.67too early to trust
NOISE151 / 200 TBF
ERA3.31
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.79too early to trust
NOISE35.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL151 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%too early to trust
NOISE151 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.258
lg avg .295 ▼−.037too early to trust
NOISE103 / 800 BIP