Is Reynaldo López a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Reynaldo López's rest-of-season outlook?

3.64 ERA hides a 4.63 xERA — nearly a run of luck.

week 25

this weekSELL

last weekSELL-HIGH

Reynaldo López

ATL·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026

Sell stable xERA 4.63 +0.53 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.71

ROSK 7ERA 4.30WHIP 1.34W 0–1SV 0

López is a sell — the skill sits below league and the sample is stable.

His expected ERA is 4.63, more than half a run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. This is not a case of a good pitcher dragged down by bad luck — his BABIP-against is not inflating the damage, so there is no correction coming. The contact he allows backs it up: a .330 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league mark, in a sample past the point where that stabilizes. The strikeout rate is 21.6%, right at league average, and the walk rate is 9.5%, worse than the 8.0% league mark. His expected ERA has been stepping up across the sample, not settling down. There is no luck story to fall back on. Sell. A 4.30 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over 7 K is streaming-only, deep-league fringe — a drop, not a hold.

VS His Norm

Walk %9.5%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~8.6% career norm
Strikeout %21.6%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~22.1% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.63 +0.53 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed36.4%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —

209 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed7.7%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —

209 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.330

lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —

306 / 200 TBF

xERA4.63

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.53vs his norm —

306 / 200 TBF

ERA3.64

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.46vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

71.7 / 200 IP

Strikeout %21.6%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −0.5% ▼

306 / 70 TBF

Walk %9.5%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm +0.9% ▲

306 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.286

lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

209 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.9%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —

306 / 60 TBF

Chase %27.2%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —

306 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo94.2 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —

1226 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 21.6%→21.8%signal7 K — K% 21.6% (signal) held to career ~22.1% → projected 21.8% over ~8 remaining IP.

xERA 4.63signal4.30 ERA — xERA 4.63 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 35 IP.

BB% 9.5% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 6…

run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop4.30 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons