320 PA · week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH
Willi Castro
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.294 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.59 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .232R 23RBI 18SB 4
Castro is a sell — below-league skill with no luck excuse.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %6.0%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~6.8% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.294 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
200 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
200 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
200 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.294
lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —
320 / 160 PA
wOBA.317
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —
320 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
320 / 60 PA
Walk %8.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
320 / 120 PA
BABIP.352
lg avg .295 ▲+.057vs his norm +.048 ▲BABIP is above his ~.304 norm — expect it to fall.
200 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
320 / 50 PA
Chase %37.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.9%vs his norm —
320 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.0%→6.4%signal3 HR — Barrel% 6.0% (signal) lifted to career ~6.8% → projected 6.4%.
BABIP 0.352→0.320 regressednoise.232 AVG — BABIP 0.352 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.309 (xBA 0.230) → 0.320.
on-base + lineup23 R — his run rate over ~178 projected PA.
slugging + lineup18 RBI — his RBI rate over ~178 projected PA.
run rate / role4 SB — his steal rate (4 in 50 G) over ~178 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.