187 PA · week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Willi Castro
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Castro is a sell-high — inflated BABIP masks the drop.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Sell High
med0.73
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.368 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.279 is 0.031 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.1 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL116 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL116 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL116 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.279
lg avg .315 ▼−.036trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL187 / 160 PA
wOBA.310
lg avg .315 ▼−.005too early to trust
NOISE187 / 200 PA
Strikeout %28.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL187 / 60 PA
Walk %8.6%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL187 / 120 PA
BABIP.368
lg avg .295 ▲+.073too early to trust
NOISE116 / 800 BIP