week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Yuki Matsui
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.03 is 1.20 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.204 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.03WHIP 1.38W 0–0SV 0
Matsui is a sell-high — the ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %13.8%—+2.2% ▲vs his ~11.6% career norm
- Strikeout %26.2%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~25.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.204 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.03 is 1.20 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.5%vs his norm —
154 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
154 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.270
lg avg .315 ▼−.045vs his norm —
260 / 200 TBF
xERA3.03
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.07vs his norm —
260 / 200 TBF
ERA1.83
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.27vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
64 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
260 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm +2.2% ▲
260 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.204
lg avg .295 ▼−.091vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
154 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
260 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
260 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.0 mphvs his norm —
1086 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.2%→25.7%signal0 K — K% 26.2% (signal) tempered to career ~25.0% → projected 25.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.03signal3.03 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.03 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 13.8% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.278 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.03 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.