week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Yuki Matsui
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.13 is 1.04 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.206 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 6ERA 3.13WHIP 1.38W 0–0SV 0
Matsui is a sell-high — the ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %14.0%—+2.4% ▲vs his ~11.6% career norm
- Strikeout %27.1%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~25.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.206 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.13 is 1.04 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.9%vs his norm —
133 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
133 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.275
lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —
229 / 200 TBF
xERA3.13
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.97vs his norm —
229 / 200 TBF
ERA2.09
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.01vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
56 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
229 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm +2.4% ▲
229 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.206
lg avg .295 ▼−.089vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
133 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
229 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
229 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.1 mphvs his norm —
942 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.1%→26.1%signal6 K — K% 27.1% (signal) tempered to career ~25.0% → projected 26.1% over ~6 remaining IP.
xERA 3.13signal3.13 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.13 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 14.0% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.280 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.13 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.