MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
Engraved portrait of Moisés Ballesteros
348 PA · week 27
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Moisés Ballesteros

data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
flipped from HOLD on September 27, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Ballesteros is a sell — the skill is below league.

His expected wOBA is .290, .025 below the league average of .315, and he has 348 plate appearances — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .275, even lower, so there is no bad-luck story propping the line up. His contact quality looks fine on the surface — 90.2 mph average exit velocity, 45.8% hard-hit rate — but the expected wOBA comes in below league anyway, and the trajectory is stepping down across the sample rather than climbing. The discipline numbers explain it: he swings at 37.3% of pitches outside the zone and swings and misses on 14.7% of them. The surface is not hiding anything. Sell. A .000 AVG / 0 HR ROS line is a pure drop — streaming-only, not a hold. Fade the production; deep-league waiver fodder at best.

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.2 mph
90.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
236 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.8%
45.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
236 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
236 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.290
believable since Jun 11.290*
lg avg .315 ▼−.025vs his norm —
348 / 160 PA
wOBA.275
.275*
lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —
348 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.6%
23.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
348 / 60 PA
Walk %8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
348 / 120 PA
BABIP.260
.260*
lg avg .295 ▼−.035vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
236 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.7%
14.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
348 / 50 PA
Chase %37.3%
37.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.8%vs his norm —
348 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.5%→8.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.5% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 8.4%.
BABIP 0.260→0.245 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.260 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.239 (xBA 0.225) → 0.245.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 48 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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