MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Sean Manaea
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Sean Manaea

NYM·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.76 +0.66 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.75
ROSK 0ERA 4.39WHIP 1.28W 0–0SV 0

Manaea is a sell — his expected ERA is a run above league.

His expected ERA is 4.76, .66 above the league average of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The trend underneath it is worse: his xERA has stepped up across the sample. His expected wOBA allowed is .333 against a .315 league average, so batted balls against him have been too good all year. He allows a 10.9% barrel rate against a league average of 8.0% and a 42.5% hard-hit rate, both past the sample threshold where they become trustworthy. His strikeout rate is 22.1%, exactly league, so there is no swing-and-miss foundation to build on. He throws 91.3 mph, three miles an hour below league. Nothing here is being held down by bad luck — this is the level he is pitching at. Sell. A 4.39 ERA and 1.28 WHIP is a drop-tier line — fringe waiver material, no reason to hold and pay for the name.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.1%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~22.8% career norm
  • Walk %6.7%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~6.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.76 +0.66 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.5%
42.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
449 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
449 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.333
believable since Jun 14.333*
lg avg .315 ▲+.018vs his norm —
653 / 200 TBF
xERA4.76
4.76*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.66vs his norm —
653 / 200 TBF
ERA4.78
4.78*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.68vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
150.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.1%
norm22.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
653 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.7%
norm6.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
653 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.302
.302*
lg avg .295 ▲+.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
449 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
11.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
653 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.1%
31.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
653 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.3 mph
91.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.7 mphvs his norm —
2493 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.1%→22.3%signal0 K — K% 22.1% (signal) held to career ~22.8% → projected 22.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.76signal4.39 ERA — xERA 4.76 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 39 IP.
BB% 6.7% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.39 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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