week 25
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Sean Manaea
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.95 +0.85 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.81 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 9ERA 4.51WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Manaea is a sell — his expected ERA says the skill isn't there.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.6%—−1.2% ▼vs his ~22.8% career norm
- Walk %7.0%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~6.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.95 +0.85 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
401 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
401 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.340
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —
582 / 200 TBF
xERA4.95
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.85vs his norm —
582 / 200 TBF
ERA4.79
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.69vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
133.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −1.2% ▼
582 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
582 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.311
lg avg .295 ▲+.016vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
401 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.0%vs his norm —
582 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
582 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.7 mphvs his norm —
2227 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.6%→21.9%signal9 K — K% 21.6% (signal) lifted to career ~22.8% → projected 21.9% over ~8 remaining IP.
xERA 4.95signal4.51 ERA — xERA 4.95 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 39 IP.
BB% 7.0% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.51 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.