week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
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Sean Manaea
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Manaea is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.
Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. His ERA is 5.08, but the building blocks say he is not that bad. The number inflating his line is his BABIP-against: .343, 48 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 114 — that gap is luck, not a signal about his stuff. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 4.08, a full run lower. His hard-hit rate (36.0%) and barrel rate (8.8%) are both near or below league average, meaning he is not getting crushed. He strikes out 23.9% of batters, above league average, and his walk rate (9.1%) is close to the league norm. The stuff is fine; the surface is not. Buy low.
Buy Low
high0.90
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.343 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL114 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL114 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.319
lg avg .315 ▲+.004too early to trust
NOISE176 / 200 TBF
xERA4.08
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.02too early to trust
NOISE176 / 200 TBF
ERA5.08
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.98too early to trust
NOISE39 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL176 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL176 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.343
lg avg .295 ▲+.048too early to trust
NOISE114 / 800 BIP