MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Sean Manaea
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Sean Manaea

NYM·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.22); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 39ERA 4.04WHIP 1.29W 0–0SV 0

Manaea is a hold — league average, nothing to exploit.

His xERA is 4.22, a hair above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His contact-suppression metrics all sit near the league mean: his hard-hit rate allowed is 39.9% (league 40.0%), his barrel rate allowed is 8.1% (league 8.0%), and his xwOBA allowed is .318 (league .315). His strikeout rate, walk rate, and swinging-strike rate are also all close to average. There is no luck story pulling his ERA one way or another, and the underlying skill is exactly what it looks like — a league-average arm. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample, meaning the early relative success is fading. Hold. 39 K / 4.04 ERA / 1.29 WHIP: a fringe drop in shallow leagues; has no single category to carry.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %7.3%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~6.8% career norm
  • Strikeout %22.5%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~22.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.22)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.9%
39.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
223 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.1%
8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
223 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.318
believable since Jun 14.318*
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —
329 / 200 TBF
xERA4.22
4.22*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.12vs his norm —
329 / 200 TBF
ERA4.56
4.56*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.46vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
75 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
norm22.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
329 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
norm7.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
329 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.308
.308*
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
223 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
329 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.0%
32.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
329 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.6 mph
90.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.4 mphvs his norm —
1336 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.5%→22.6%signal39 K — K% 22.5% (signal) held to career ~22.8% → projected 22.6% over ~36 remaining IP.
xERA 4.22signal4.04 ERA — xERA 4.22 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 39 IP.
BB% 7.3% + contactsignal1.29 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.04 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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