MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Hunter Goodman
574 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Hunter Goodman

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.321); strikeout rate 30% is stable and high, caps the floor; hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Goodman is a hold — real power, capped by the strikeouts.

His expected wOBA is .321 — just six points above the league average of .315 — and with 574 plate appearances that number is fully stable. The contact quality underneath it is legitimately good: 89.8 mph average exit velocity, a 44.3% hard-hit rate, and 14.4% barrels, all above league and based on 348 batted balls. But the strikeouts are the story that keeps the line from running. He fans in 30.5% of plate appearances against a 22% league rate, and that number is both stable and climbing. The swing decisions back it up — an 18.6% swinging-strike rate and a 40.4% chase rate, both well above league. The power is real and the expected production is a touch above average; the whiffs put a hard ceiling on how far it climbs. Nothing here is unstable enough to sell and nothing enough to buy. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %14.4%—+1.8% ▲vs his ~12.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.321)
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.8 mph
89.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
348 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.3%
44.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
348 / 50 BBE
Barrel %14.4%
norm14.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.4%vs his norm +1.8% ▲
348 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.321
.321*
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —
574 / 160 PA
wOBA.355
believable since May 25.355*
lg avg .315 ▲+.040vs his norm —
574 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.5%
30.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.5%vs his norm —
574 / 60 PA
Walk %8.0%
8.0%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
574 / 120 PA
BABIP.280
norm.280*
lg avg .295 ▼−.015vs his norm −.013 ▼BABIP is below his ~.293 norm — expect it to rise.
348 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.6%
18.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.6%vs his norm —
574 / 50 PA
Chase %40.4%
40.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+11.9%vs his norm —
574 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 14.4%→13.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 14.4% (signal) tempered to career ~12.6% → projected 13.7%.
BABIP 0.280→0.276 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.280 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.274 (xBA 0.228) → 0.276.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (3 in 55 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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