week 29
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Kyle Hurt
data as of October 9, 2026·week 29
new call as of October 9, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.76); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0–0
Hurt is a hold — league average with a strikeout arm attached
ROS projects K 21 YTD → 0 ROS, WHIP 0.78 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.76)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
116 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
116 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.299
lg avg .315 ▼−.016vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
198 / 200 TBF
xERA3.76
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.34vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
198 / 200 TBF
ERA4.14
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.04vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
45.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.3%vs his norm —
198 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
198 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.300
lg avg .295 ▲+.005vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
116 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.9%vs his norm —
198 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
198 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.6 mphvs his norm —
742 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.3%→28.2%signal0 K — K% 29.3% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 28.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.76noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.76 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 11.6% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.