MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 20, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kyle Hurt
week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL

Kyle Hurt

LAD·P
data as of July 20, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 20, 2026
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.56 sits 0.54 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.329 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 22ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 0–2

Hurt is a buy-low — his ERA is lying

His ERA is 4.88, but the box score is hiding a real arm. The culprit is BABIP-against at .329, 34 points above league average — and with just 80 balls in play against a stabilization threshold of 800, that gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the noise and his xERA sits at 3.56, half a run below league, though the sample is still short of reliability at 135 TBF. His strikeout rate is 28.1% against a league average of 22.0%, and his swinging-strike rate of 18.0% is elite. The fastball has stepped up across the sample, now averaging 96.4 mph, 2.4 ticks above league. The underlying stuff is real and the surface ERA is built on nothing but bad luck. Buy low. 22 K and a 3.70 ERA make this a deep-league buy; the skill is real despite the bad-luck surface.

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.56 sits 0.54 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.329 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.3%
believable since Jun 1141.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
80 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
80 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.293
.293*
lg avg .315 ▼−.022vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
135 / 200 TBF
xERA3.56
3.56*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.54vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
135 / 200 TBF
ERA4.88
4.88*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.78vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
31.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.1%
28.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
135 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
135 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.329
.329*
lg avg .295 ▲+.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.0%
18.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.0%vs his norm —
135 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.1%
31.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
135 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.4 mph
96.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.4 mphvs his norm —
483 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.1%→27.3%signal22 K — K% 28.1% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 27.3% over ~19 remainin…
xERA 3.56noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.56 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 11.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-2 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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