MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Clayton Beeter
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekNO CALL

Clayton Beeter

WSH·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.85 +0.75 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.78
ROSK 5ERA 4.45WHIP 1.49W 0–0SV 1–2

Beeter is a sell — his xERA is climbing and the walks are real

His expected ERA is 4.85, three-quarters of a run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The surface agrees: his expected wOBA allowed is .337, above the .315 league mark. The thing that should worry you most is the trajectory — his xERA has stepped up across the sample, not down. He walks 15% of batters against a league average of 8%, and walk rate is a stable number at this point in the season, so that is not going to fix itself. He strikes out 22.3% of batters, basically league average, so there is no swing-and-miss ceiling to bail him out. There is no BABIP-against story here propping the line up or dragging it down — the skill metrics say exactly what the results say. Sell. 5 K, 4.45 ERA, 1.49 WHIP rest of season says drop — a deep-league streamer at best, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.3%—−6.7% ▼vs his ~29.0% career norm
  • Walk %15.0%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~16.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.85 +0.75 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.9%
believable since Jun 1142.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
126 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
126 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.337
.337*
lg avg .315 ▲+.022vs his norm —
206 / 200 TBF
xERA4.85
4.85*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.75vs his norm —
206 / 200 TBF
ERA4.60
4.60*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.50vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
47 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.3%
norm22.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm −6.7% ▼
206 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.0%
norm15.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.0%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
206 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.241
.241*
lg avg .295 ▼−.054vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
126 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.4%
12.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
206 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.1%
28.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
206 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.7 mph
95.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.7 mphvs his norm —
783 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.3%→25.6%signal5 K — K% 22.3% (signal) lifted to career ~29.0% → projected 25.6% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 4.85signal4.45 ERA — xERA 4.85 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 15.0% + contactsignal1.49 WHIP — a 15% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.62 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-2 SV — role: closer.
rosterdrop5 SV, 4.45 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups