MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Clayton Beeter
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekNO CALL

Clayton Beeter

WSH·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.79 +0.69 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.76
ROSK 0ERA 4.41WHIP 1.47W 0–0SV 0–0

Beeter is a sell — stable xERA says the skill is below league.

His expected ERA is 4.79, and that number comes with 209 batters faced — enough that it is no longer moving around on him. The league average is 4.10. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample, not leveling off, so the trend points the wrong way. The problem is his walk rate: 14.8% against a league average of 8.0%, and his sample clears the threshold where that becomes reliable. There is no luck story to blame for the gap. His BABIP-against is not driving this; the run prevention numbers are telling the truth. His hard-hit rate allowed and xwOBA allowed are both above league, and his strikeout rate sits right at average. The stuff shows up in velocity and swinging strikes, but the results do not. Sell. 0 K and 4.41 ERA the rest of the way — fringe arm, so treat this as a drop and stream the roster spot instead.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.5%—−6.5% ▼vs his ~29.0% career norm
  • Walk %14.8%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~16.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.79 +0.69 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.0%
believable since Jun 1143.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
128 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
128 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.334
.334*
lg avg .315 ▲+.019vs his norm —
209 / 200 TBF
xERA4.79
4.79*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.69vs his norm —
209 / 200 TBF
ERA4.50
4.50*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.40vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
48 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
norm22.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −6.5% ▼
209 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.8%
norm14.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
209 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.237
.237*
lg avg .295 ▼−.058vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
128 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.6%
12.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
209 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.5%
28.5%*
lg avg 28.5% 0.0%vs his norm —
209 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.7 mph
95.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.7 mphvs his norm —
796 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.5%→25.7%signal0 K — K% 22.5% (signal) lifted to career ~29.0% → projected 25.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.79signal4.41 ERA — xERA 4.79 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 14.8% + contactsignal1.47 WHIP — a 15% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.60 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdrop4 SV, 4.41 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups