week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
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Mason Fluharty
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Fluharty is a buy-low — ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.
Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. His ERA is 4.09, but the number inflating it is BABIP-against at .377, 82 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 55. That gap is luck, not a signal about his pitching. His hard-hit rate allowed is 30.9%, well below the league average of 40.0%, and that number has cleared its stabilization point. He strikes out 31.6% of batters, nearly 10 points above league average. His expected ERA is 2.01 — more than two runs lower than his actual ERA. The stuff is real; the surface is not. Buy low.
Buy Low
high0.90
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.377 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL55 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%too early to trust
NOISE55 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.226
lg avg .315 ▼−.089too early to trust
NOISE95 / 200 TBF
xERA2.01
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.09too early to trust
NOISE95 / 200 TBF
ERA4.09
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.01too early to trust
NOISE22 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL95 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%too early to trust
NOISE95 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.377
lg avg .295 ▲+.082too early to trust
NOISE55 / 800 BIP