MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Mason Fluharty
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY-LOW

Mason Fluharty

TOR·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY-LOW on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.81, 1.29 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 6ERA 2.81WHIP 1.33W 0–1SV 0

Fluharty is a buy — the contact suppression is real and earned

His expected ERA is 2.81, 1.29 runs below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The contact quality backs it: he allows a 30.7% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40%, and his barrel rate is 6.5% against 8.0%. He strikes out 25.6% of batters, above league, and his swinging-strike rate of 14.1% and chase rate of 35% both sit above league average. The one crack is his walk rate at 10.7%, above league, but that is a single soft spot against a deep set of winning numbers — and his expected ERA has stepped down across the sample. The skill is real and nothing lucky is holding it up. Buy. Deep-league asset: 6 K, 2.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 0 SV means you add the ratios, not the saves.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.6%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~27.7% career norm
  • Walk %10.7%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~10.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.81, 1.29 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.7%
30.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.3%vs his norm —
153 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
believable since Jun 56.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
153 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.261
.261*
lg avg .315 ▼−.054vs his norm —
242 / 200 TBF
xERA2.81
2.81*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.29vs his norm —
242 / 200 TBF
ERA3.30
3.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.80vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
57.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.6%
norm25.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
242 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.7%
norm10.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
242 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.278
.278*
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
153 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.1%
14.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
242 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.0%
35.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
242 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.8 mph
90.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.2 mphvs his norm —
950 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.6%→26.6%signal6 K — K% 25.6% (signal) lifted to career ~27.7% → projected 26.6% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 2.81signal2.81 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.81 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.7% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep2.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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