week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
Mason Fluharty
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.05 sits 1.05 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.357 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 28ERA 3.69WHIP 1.24W 1–4SV 0
Fluharty is a buy-low — ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.9%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~27.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.05 sits 1.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.357 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.6%vs his norm —
105 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
105 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.273
lg avg .315 ▼−.042vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
167 / 200 TBF
xERA3.05
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.05vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
167 / 200 TBF
ERA4.54
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.44vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
37.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
167 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −1.1% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.7% norm — expect it to rise.
167 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.357
lg avg .295 ▲+.062vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
105 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
167 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
167 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.2 mphvs his norm —
668 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.9%→27.4%signal28 K — K% 26.9% (signal) lifted to career ~27.7% → projected 27.4% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 3.05noise3.69 ERA — xERA 3.05 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 9.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 2…
run support + role1-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.69 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.