Rest of Season Projection
CalebCategoryMason
36K →46
3.71ERA →3.68
1.25WHIP →1.24
2–4W →3–7
3–6SV ←0
Current Season
CalebCategoryMason
29K →30
3.81ERA ←4.09
1.15WHIP ←1.36
2W →3
3SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Caleb Kilian
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.214 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.94 is 0.60 above the ERA — regression coming
Mason Fluharty
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.54 sits 1.56 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.359 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Caleb Kilian: 37 K / 3.71 ERA. Mason Fluharty: 48 K / 3.67 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).