Rest of Season Projection
AlbertCategoryCaleb
29K →38
3.71ERA3.71
1.24WHIP ←1.25
3–7W ←2–4
1–4SV →3–6
Current Season
AlbertCategoryCaleb
10K →29
2.61ERA ←3.81
1.21WHIP →1.15
2W2
1SV →3
What Each Player's System Trusts
Albert Suárez
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.256 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.68 is 0.67 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Caleb Kilian
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.214 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.92 is 0.58 above the ERA — regression coming
Albert Suárez: 29 K / 3.71 ERA. Caleb Kilian: 38 K / 3.71 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).