
413 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY
Kevin McGonigle
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from BUY on July 18, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.366) — BABIP 0.318 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .276R 29RBI 16SB 7
McGonigle is a hold — league-average skill with no edge.
ROS projects HR 3 YTD → 4 ROS, AVG .285 YTD → .276 ROS, R 38 YTD → 29 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.366)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.318 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —
294 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
294 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
294 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.366
lg avg .315 ▲+.051vs his norm —
413 / 160 PA
wOBA.364
lg avg .315 ▲+.049vs his norm —
413 / 200 PA
Strikeout %13.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.4%vs his norm —
413 / 60 PA
Walk %14.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
413 / 120 PA
BABIP.318
lg avg .295 ▲+.023vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
294 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
413 / 50 PA
Chase %18.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−10.5%vs his norm —
413 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.8%→7.8%signal4 HR — Barrel% 7.8% (signal) held to league ~8.0% → projected 7.8%.
BABIP 0.318→0.308 regressednoise.276 AVG — BABIP 0.318 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.302 (xBA 0.271) → 0.308.
on-base + lineup29 R — his run rate over ~200 projected PA.
slugging + lineup16 RBI — his RBI rate over ~200 projected PA.
run rate / role7 SB — his steal rate (9 in 59 G) over ~200 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.