630 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY
Kevin McGonigle
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.351); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .259HR 1R 7RBI 4SB 2
McGonigle is a hold — average skill, nothing unstable driving it.
ROS projects HR 3 YTD → 1 ROS, AVG .285 YTD → .259 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.351)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —
457 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
457 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
457 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.351
lg avg .315 ▲+.036vs his norm —
630 / 160 PA
wOBA.352
lg avg .315 ▲+.037vs his norm —
630 / 200 PA
Strikeout %13.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.5%vs his norm —
630 / 60 PA
Walk %13.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
630 / 120 PA
BABIP.297
lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
457 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
630 / 50 PA
Chase %19.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−8.9%vs his norm —
630 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.0%→7.2%signal1 HR — Barrel% 7.0% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 7.2%.
BABIP 0.297→0.294 regressednoise.259 AVG — BABIP 0.297 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.291 (xBA 0.261) → 0.294.
on-base + lineup7 R — his run rate over ~44 projected PA.
slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~44 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (9 in 59 G) over ~44 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.