MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 11, 2026
Engraved portrait of Anthony Volpe
194 PA · week 25
this weekSELL
last weekNO CALL

Anthony Volpe

data as of September 11, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 11, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .215R 6RBI 5SB 3

Volpe is a sell — the bat is below league and steady there

His expected wOBA is .290, which is 25 points below the league average of .315, and he has 194 plate appearances against the 160 it takes for the number to become reliable. So this is not a cold stretch that will turn. His actual wOBA tracks right with the expected mark, so there is no bad luck to unwind, and his xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample rather than climbing. The contact quality agrees: 87.8 mph average exit velocity is more than a tick under league, his 35.4% hard-hit rate sits under the league's 40%, and his 3.9% barrel rate is half of league. He does walk 11.3% of the time, above league, and his chase rate of 24% is better than most — those are real positives. They just don't change the level. Sell. A 0 HR / 6 R / 5 RBI / 3 SB / .215 AVG line is a waiver-wire drag — drop or streaming-only.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %3.9%−3.6%vs his ~7.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.8 mph
believable since Jun 1187.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −1.2 mphvs his norm —
127 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %35.4%
35.4%*
lg avg 40.0% −4.6%vs his norm —
127 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.9%
norm3.9%*
lg avg 8.0% −4.1%vs his norm −3.6%
127 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.290
.290*
lg avg .315 −.025vs his norm —
194 / 160 PA
wOBA.294
.294*
lg avg .315 −.021vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league averageexpect it to rise.
194 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.2%
23.2%*
lg avg 22.0% +1.2%vs his norm —
194 / 60 PA
Walk %11.3%
11.3%*
lg avg 8.5% +2.8%vs his norm —
194 / 120 PA
BABIP.317
norm.317*
lg avg .295 +.022vs his norm +.043 BABIP is above his ~.274 normexpect it to fall.
127 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
11.5%*
lg avg 11.0% +0.5%vs his norm —
194 / 50 PA
Chase %24.0%
24.0%*
lg avg 28.5% −4.5%vs his norm —
194 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.9%→6.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 3.9% (signal) lifted to career ~7.5% → projected 6.1%.
BABIP 0.317→0.285 regressednoise.215 AVG — BABIP 0.317 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.278 (xBA 0.231) → 0.285.
on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~34 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~34 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (4 in 13 G) over ~34 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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