107 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Tyler Heineman
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.240); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .202R 11RBI 7SB 0
Heineman is a hold — limited data, no edge in either direction.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 1 ROS, AVG .141 YTD → .202 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %1.3%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~2.6% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.240)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo81.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−7.7 mphvs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %13.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−26.1%vs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
79 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.240
lg avg .315 ▼−.075vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
107 / 160 PA
wOBA.207
lg avg .315 ▼−.108vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
107 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
107 / 60 PA
Walk %2.8%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.7%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
107 / 120 PA
BABIP.216
lg avg .295 ▼−.079vs his norm −.102 ▼BABIP is below his ~.318 norm — expect it to rise.
79 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
107 / 50 PA
Chase %43.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+14.8%vs his norm —
107 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.3%→2.2%signal1 HR — Barrel% 1.3% (signal) lifted to career ~2.6% → projected 2.2%.
BABIP 0.216→0.264 regressednoise.202 AVG — BABIP 0.216 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.269 (xBA 0.219) → 0.264.
on-base + lineup11 R — his run rate over ~141 projected PA.
slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~141 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 30 G) over ~141 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.