MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Bryan Woo
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Bryan Woo

SEA·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.54, 0.56 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.77
ROSK 13ERA 3.54WHIP 1.13W 1–1SV 0

Woo is a buy — his expected ERA says the skill is real.

His expected ERA is 3.54, well below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. He strikes out 25% of batters, above league average, and walks just 5.2%, well below it. Those are the numbers that hold. His fastball is sitting at 96.1 mph, above the league average of 94.0, and it has been climbing across the sample. The expected ERA has been stepping down at the same time. He gets swings on 13.1% of pitches, above league, and his xwOBA allowed of .292 is 23 points better than league. This is a pitcher throwing harder and getting better results. Buy. A 13 K / 3.54 ERA line makes him a deep-league asset to acquire now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.0%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~24.8% career norm
  • Walk %5.2%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~5.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.54, 0.56 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.0%
43.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
435 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.4%
7.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
435 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.292
.292*
lg avg .315 ▼−.023vs his norm —
633 / 200 TBF
xERA3.54
3.54*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.56vs his norm —
633 / 200 TBF
ERA4.03
4.03*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
156.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.0%
norm25.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
633 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.2%
norm5.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
633 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
.273*
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
435 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.1%
13.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
633 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.9%
33.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
633 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
2395 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.0%→25.0%signal13 K — K% 25.0% (signal) tempered to career ~24.8% → projected 25.0% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 3.54signal3.54 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.54 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.2% + contactsignal1.13 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.13 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep13 K ROS, 3.54 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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