MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Zach Agnos
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Zach Agnos

COL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 5.30 +1.20 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 4.74WHIP 1.43W 0–0SV 0–0

Agnos is a sell — stable, below-league skill with no luck behind it.

His expected ERA is 5.30, a full 1.20 runs above the league average of 4.10, and with 407 batters faced his sample has cleared the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing underneath it is unlucky. His expected wOBA allowed is .349 against a league average of .315, so opposing hitters are earning what they get. The strikeout rate is the part that caps him: 14.3%, well under the league's 22.0%, is stable at this sample and running below his own 14.9% career baseline and trending down from there. He misses bats on 10.6% of swings, right around league, so there's no swing-and-miss gear to build on. His expected ERA keeps climbing and his strikeout rate keeps sliding. That is the level he's at. Sell. A 4.74 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 0 K is waiver-wire filler — drop him and don't look back.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %8.6%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~9.7% career norm
  • Strikeout %14.3%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~14.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.30 +1.20 vs league with no luck excuse
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.4%
41.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
309 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.7%
8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
309 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.349
believable since Jun 14.349*
lg avg .315 ▲+.034vs his norm —
407 / 200 TBF
xERA5.30
5.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.20vs his norm —
407 / 200 TBF
ERA5.93
5.93*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.83vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
91 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.3%
norm14.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.7%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
407 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
norm8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
407 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.309
.309*
lg avg .295 ▲+.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
309 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
407 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.0%
32.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
407 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
94.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
1502 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.3%→14.5%signal0 K — K% 14.3% (signal) held to career ~14.9% → projected 14.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.30signal4.74 ERA — xERA 5.30 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 37 IP.
BB% 8.6% + contactsignal1.43 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.54 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop4.74 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups