week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Zach Agnos
data as of July 21, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 21, 2026
Sell stable xERA 5.45 +1.35 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 22ERA 4.84WHIP 1.44W 0–0SV 1–3
Agnos is a sell — his strikeout rate is a hard ceiling.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %14.2%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~14.9% career norm
- Walk %9.0%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~9.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.45 +1.35 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
202 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
202 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.355
lg avg .315 ▲+.040vs his norm —
267 / 200 TBF
xERA5.45
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.35vs his norm —
267 / 200 TBF
ERA6.37
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.27vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
59.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.8%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
267 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
267 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.306
lg avg .295 ▲+.011vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
202 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
267 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
267 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
980 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.2%→14.5%signal22 K — K% 14.2% (signal) lifted to career ~14.9% → projected 14.5% over ~30 remaining IP.
xERA 5.45signal4.84 ERA — xERA 5.45 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 37 IP.
BB% 9.0% + contactsignal1.44 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.54 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)1-3 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop4.84 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.