MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Sandy Alcantara
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Sandy Alcantara

MIA·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.89); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 10ERA 3.89WHIP 1.29W 0–1SV 0

Alcantara is a hold — near league average, nothing unstable

His expected ERA is 3.89, essentially level with the league average of 4.10, and the 833 batters he has faced clear the 200 needed for that number to be reliable. His actual ERA is 3.78, so the surface and the skill agree — no luck gap to explain away. His expected wOBA allowed of .305 and his hard-hit rate allowed of 35.7% both sit just better than league, and his walk rate of 6.6% is below league average. The one lag is his 17.2% strikeout rate, well short of the 22% league mark, and his swinging-strike rate is essentially average, so he is not missing bats at a premium clip despite averaging 97.4 mph. His expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, which keeps this from tipping either way. Nothing here is unstable and nothing is inflated. Hold. 10 K and a 3.89 ERA rest-of-season is waiver-wire filler, not a stash — hold only if you have nothing better, otherwise this is a drop.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.2%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~20.7% career norm
  • Walk %6.6%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~7.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.89)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.7%
35.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
627 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.6%
5.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
627 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.305
.305*
lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —
833 / 200 TBF
xERA3.89
3.89*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.21vs his norm —
833 / 200 TBF
ERA3.78
believable since Sep 93.78*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32vs his norm —
200 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.2%
norm17.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
833 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.6%
norm6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
833 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.275
.275*
lg avg .295 ▼−.020vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
627 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
833 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.4%
31.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
833 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.4 mph
97.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.4 mphvs his norm —
3060 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.2%→17.9%signal10 K — K% 17.2% (signal) lifted to career ~20.7% → projected 17.9% over ~14 remaining IP.
xERA 3.89signal3.89 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.89 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.6% + contactsignal1.29 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop10 K ROS, 3.89 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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