Is David Hamilton a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is David Hamilton's rest-of-season outlook?

Hard-hit 27.9% and 86.8 mph exit velo can't support .293 wOBA

387 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

David Hamilton

MIL·3B

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.276 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.63

ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Hamilton is a sell — real contact, real contact-quality problems.

His expected wOBA is .276, and he has 387 plate appearances — well past the 160 needed for that number to hold. There is no luck to blame: his actual wOBA of .293 sits slightly above the expected mark, so the line is not being dragged down by bad bounces. The problem is how he is hitting the ball. His average exit velocity is 86.8 mph against a league average of 89.0, his hard-hit rate is 27.9% against 40.0%, and his barrel rate is 3.4% against 8.0%, all on 266 batted balls. Those samples have long been reliable, and the expected wOBA has been stepping down across the season. His plate discipline is ordinary across the board, so he is not offsetting the weak contact with walks or exceptional strikeout avoidance. The bat is not a buy-low; this is the level. Sell. Projected 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG, he's a drop — streaming-only fringe, not a stash.

VS His Norm

Barrel %3.4%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~5.8% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.276 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo86.8 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —

266 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %27.9%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.1%vs his norm —

266 / 50 BBE

Barrel %3.4%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm −2.4% ▼

266 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.276

lg avg .315 ▼−.039vs his norm —

387 / 160 PA

wOBA.293

lg avg .315 ▼−.022vs his norm —

387 / 200 PA

Strikeout %22.2%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —

387 / 60 PA

Walk %8.3%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —

387 / 120 PA

BABIP.317

lg avg .295 ▲+.022vs his norm +.039 ▲BABIP is above his ~.278 norm — expect it to fall.

266 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.9%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —

387 / 50 PA

Chase %29.6%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —

387 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 3.4%→4.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 3.4% (signal) lifted to career ~5.8% → projected 4.4%.

BABIP 0.317→0.285 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.317 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.269 (xBA 0.225) → 0.285.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (13 in 47 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons