Is David Hamilton a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell High — surface results exceed what the underlying metrics support; sell into the hype.

What is David Hamilton's rest-of-season outlook?

86.8 mph EV, 27.7% hard-hit — bottom-barrel contact.

238 PA · week 17

this weekSELL-HIGH

last weekHOLD

David Hamilton

MIL·3B

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17

ON THE 10-DAY IL

flipped from HOLD

Sell High luck-free skill 0.264 is 0.030 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.313 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.72

ROSAVG .212HR 2R 27RBI 10SB 14

Hamilton is a sell-high — his BABIP is hiding the skill gap.

His actual wOBA is .294, but the xwOBA behind it is .264, and the gap is not closing. The difference is being held open by a BABIP of .313, above the league average of .295, and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable — he has 160. That luck will fade, and the surface line will follow. The contact quality does not support the current production: his exit velocity is 86.8 mph, hard-hit rate 27.7%, and barrel rate 3.8%, all well below league. There is no skill story underneath the BABIP mirage, and the xwOBA has been stepping down through the sample. Sell high. 14 SB with .212 AVG caps his value; deep-league sell window is closing — move him now.

VS His Norm

Barrel %3.8%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~5.8% career norm

Drivers

babipNOISEBABIP 0.313 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.264 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo86.8 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —

160 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %27.7%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.3%vs his norm —

160 / 50 BBE

Barrel %3.8%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm −2.0% ▼

160 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.264

lg avg .315 ▼−.051vs his norm —

238 / 160 PA

wOBA.294

lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —

238 / 200 PA

Strikeout %22.7%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —

238 / 60 PA

Walk %9.2%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —

238 / 120 PA

BABIP.313

lg avg .295 ▲+.018vs his norm +.035 ▲BABIP is above his ~.278 norm — expect it to fall.

160 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.9%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —

238 / 50 PA

Chase %30.2%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —

238 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 3.8%→4.9%signal2 HR — Barrel% 3.8% (signal) lifted to career ~5.8% → projected 4.9%.

BABIP 0.313→0.256 regressednoise.212 AVG — BABIP 0.313 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.242 (xBA 0.203) → 0.256.

on-base + lineup27 R — his run rate over ~168 projected PA.

slugging + lineup10 RBI — his RBI rate over ~168 projected PA.

run rate / role14 SB — his steal rate (13 in 47 G) over ~168 projected PA.

rosterdeep27 SB

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons