Is David Hamilton a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is David Hamilton's rest-of-season outlook?

28% hard-hit, 3.3% barrels — no thump in this bat.

354 PA · week 25

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

David Hamilton

MIL·3B

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.276 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.63

ROSAVG .228HR 0R 6RBI 2SB 3

Hamilton is a sell — below-league bat, nothing hidden

He is averaging 87 mph off the bat — two below league — with a 28.3% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40%. His barrel rate is 3.3% versus 8% league. Those contact numbers are based on 245 batted balls, well past the 50-60 needed for them to be reliable, so this is the bat he has. His expected wOBA is .276, .039 below the league average of .315, and his actual wOBA of .296 sits close to it — his expected wOBA has stepped down across the sample, not up. There is no bad-luck story to wait out, because his .296 actual wOBA does not sit dramatically under his expected mark. His strikeout and walk rates are league average, which removes any plausible excuse. This is the level he is at. Sell. With 0 HR / 6 R / 2 RBI / 3 SB / .228 AVG, that's a drop — fringe streaming-only, not a wait-it-out hold.

VS His Norm

Barrel %3.3%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~5.8% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.276 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo87.0 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.0 mphvs his norm —

245 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %28.3%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.7%vs his norm —

245 / 50 BBE

Barrel %3.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm −2.5% ▼

245 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.276

lg avg .315 ▼−.039vs his norm —

354 / 160 PA

wOBA.296

lg avg .315 ▼−.019vs his norm —

354 / 200 PA

Strikeout %21.5%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —

354 / 60 PA

Walk %8.8%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —

354 / 120 PA

BABIP.314

lg avg .295 ▲+.019vs his norm +.036 ▲BABIP is above his ~.278 norm — expect it to fall.

245 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.8%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —

354 / 50 PA

Chase %29.4%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —

354 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 3.3%→4.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 3.3% (signal) lifted to career ~5.8% → projected 4.4%.

BABIP 0.314→0.282 regressednoise.228 AVG — BABIP 0.314 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.268 (xBA 0.224) → 0.282.

on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~38 projected PA.

slugging + lineup2 RBI — his RBI rate over ~38 projected PA.

run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (13 in 47 G) over ~38 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons