272 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Colt Keith
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.324); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .265HR 3R 20RBI 7SB 2
Colt Keith is a hold — league average, nothing to buy or sell.
ROS projects HR 0 YTD → 3 ROS, AVG .273 YTD → .265 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %8.0%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~7.2% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.324)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
201 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
201 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
201 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.324
lg avg .315 ▲+.009vs his norm —
272 / 160 PA
wOBA.301
lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —
272 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
272 / 60 PA
Walk %5.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
272 / 120 PA
BABIP.280
lg avg .295 ▼−.015vs his norm −.027 ▼BABIP is below his ~.307 norm — expect it to rise.
201 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
272 / 50 PA
Chase %23.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
272 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.0%→7.6%signal3 HR — Barrel% 8.0% (signal) tempered to career ~7.2% → projected 7.6%.
BABIP 0.280→0.320 regressednoise.265 AVG — BABIP 0.280 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.334 (xBA 0.266) → 0.320.
on-base + lineup20 R — his run rate over ~170 projected PA.
slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~170 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (2 in 56 G) over ~170 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.