week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Justin Bruihl
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.30); strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 15ERA 4.09WHIP 1.40W 0–0SV 0
Bruihl is a hold — league average, no luck story.
ROS projects K 18 YTD → 15 ROS, ERA 4.61 YTD → 4.09 ROS, WHIP 1.46 YTD → 1.40 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %15.2%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~17.0% career norm
- Walk %8.6%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~8.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.30)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
152 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
152 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.321
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —
210 / 200 TBF
xERA4.30
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.20vs his norm —
210 / 200 TBF
ERA3.66
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.44vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
46.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.8%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
210 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
210 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.295
lg avg .295 .000vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
152 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
210 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
210 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.4 mphvs his norm —
799 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.2%→16.1%signal15 K — K% 15.2% (signal) lifted to career ~17.0% → projected 16.1% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 4.30signal4.09 ERA — xERA 4.30 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 8.6% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.09 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.