week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Justin Bruihl
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.48 +0.38 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.med 0.66 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.21WHIP 1.38W 0–0SV 0
Bruihl is a sell — his strikeout rate caps the ceiling.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %15.3%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~17.0% career norm
- Walk %8.1%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~8.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.48 +0.38 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
253 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
253 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.324
lg avg .315 ▲+.009vs his norm —
346 / 200 TBF
xERA4.48
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.38vs his norm —
346 / 200 TBF
ERA3.59
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.51vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
77.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm −1.7% ▼
346 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
346 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.289
lg avg .295 ▼−.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
253 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
346 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
346 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.3 mphvs his norm —
1314 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.3%→15.9%signal0 K — K% 15.3% (signal) lifted to career ~17.0% → projected 15.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.48signal4.21 ERA — xERA 4.48 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 8.1% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.46 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.21 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.